Mavs-Nuggs Game One: Crunching the Numbers

I've never been a big numbers guy. You can use numbers to prove anything. 76 percent of people know that.

But statistics are a booming business for a reason. They look at the past to predict the future, and that holds very true in sports.

Sure, Nene might have dropped 24 on the Dallas Mavericks yesterday, but seven seasons worth of stats tell us that he averages about 11.2 PPG, so that output probably isn't normal.

A look at the numbers from game one aren't exactly promising for the Mavericks, so let's take a look.

10: The number of shots taken by Carmelo Anthony

23: The amount of points he scored on those shots.

6: The number of points scored and assisted dished by Chauncey Billups.

What do those three numbers tell you? That the two best players on the Nuggets didn't exactly have breakout games, but the Nuggs were able to win by 14.

'Melo only shot 10 times, but he made seven of those, and hit another seven free throws. A very efficient game from him, despite him sitting out much of the first half with foul trouble.

The Mavericks couldn't have asked for a better opportunity in the first half, and yet when it ended they were trailing by four.

The defensive gameplan also worked on Billups, as he didn't get to the line, and his six points were a result of two three-pointers, which I can live with.

What I can't live with is the fact that Billups scores 17.7 PPG, so we can be counted on do do a lot more damage as the series goes on.

What I can't live with is that 'Melo takes 18.3 shos a game, and if he is shooting as his current clip, that means a few over-30 point games.

Let's look at some of the Mavericks' numbers.

28: The number of points scored by Dirk Nowitzki.

32: The number of minutes played by Jason Terry.

15: The number of points scored by Jason Terry, Josh Howard and Jason Kidd

For the first two on that list, 15 is much too low, for the third, more than you can expect.

For a guy who played 32 minutes, Jason Terry was absolutely invisible. If him and Brandon Bass had a "who can make the least impact off of the bench in game one" competition, they would go into more overtimes than the Bulls-Celtics series.

Bass, whose athleticism is going to be sorely needed to compete with the likes of Chris Andersen and Nene, did not come out of the gates with the physicality and energy that the Mavs needed.

Ryan Hollins and Bass are going to be needed to make much more of an impact than they did in game one, because Dampier is a step too slow to hang with Andersen and Nene.

A few more numbers:

8: The number of turnovers committed by Jason Kidd in game one

3: The number of turnovers committed by Jason Kidd in five games against the Spurs.

The Kidd turnovers only bother me because they wasted an otherwise great offensive game from Kidd. For a while in the first half, it was 2003 all over again. Kidd was hitting open threes, hitting elbow jumpers, he even tossed in a floater that made me think that the Mavs had traded for Chris Paul at halftime.

Kidd can't be counted on to drop in 15 a game, and he shouldn't be. In a way, he deserved a lot of credit for contributing. It was clear that after Howard's ankle injury that Howard couldn't (or wouldn't) get as aggressive as he needed to be, so Kidd tok up some of the slack.

The Nuggets gave him space, and he made them pay for it.

But in the debacle known as the fourth quarter, Jason Kidd went to another rarely seen aspect of his game, a turnover machine. Forced bounce passes, miscommunications with other players and sloppy ball handling became a disease that Kidd quickly spread to the other Mavericks as the fourth quarter got away from them.

Now here's where the numbers game gets a little bit ugly. You could argue that the Mavericks beat the numbers against the Spurs. Dirk and Terry didn't play up to their usual levels for most of the series, but the reserves like Bass, Hollins and J.J. Barea played above their levels, so the Mavs were able to win.

ell, yesterday, aside from Jason Terry, we saw a regression to the mean. Dirk got his points, and the role players didn't. Which is bad news since a regression to the mean seems to mean an "L" for Dallas against the Nuggets.

So do the Mavericks come out tomorrow night and have another game that defies the numbers? More importantly, will that matter?

Assume Kidd doesn't turn the ball over eight times, assume Terry and Howard score 20-plus, assume Brandon Bass puts up eight and four, his season average. Sounds good right?

Except we have to be fair. Assume 'Melo shoots more than 10 shots. Assume Billups scores more than 6 points.

Sure, Nene probably won't score another 24, and Andersen probably won't block six more shots, but when the last two paragraphs are thrown together, does it help the Mavericks gain an extra 15 net points? Especially at the Pepsi Center?

I sure hope so, but I don't know if the numbers are behind me.

2009 Playoffs: (2) Nuggets vs. (7) Hornets

This should be a doozy. A transcendent point guard and an All-Star forward vs. an All-Star point guard and a transcendent forward. A former first round doorman vs. a team trying to prove last year wasn't a fluke.

One team pulled off a monster trade, one didn't and you could argue both came out better because of it.

For the last two seasons, the Western conference champion has started their run against the Denver Nuggets. The "I shoot then you shoot" of the Iverson-Anthony combo didn't do justice to either one's talents, and it got them nowhere. Now, the game's most selfish player has been replaced by one of the most unselfish, and Denver seems poised to advance for the first time in 'Melo's career. Denver also lost a defensive rock in the paint, but added one of the game's most mercurial talents in Chris Andersen.

New Orleans is another low-seeded team still coping with the disappointments of a season in which they were picked to be a sleeper, but Chris Paul has spent the season redefining his position.

PG: Chauncey Billups vs. Chris Paul

What Billups has done to this Denver team has gone largely unnoticed, yet people are not taking them seriously to come out of the West. Partly because of the Lakers, but partly because people are ready to see if Carmelo can join his other All-Star draftmates and finally advance. Billups figures to play a big part in this because of the nature of his game.

He can distribute, he can shoot, he can play defense, in roughly that order.

Unfortunately, the man on the other end of the ball could end up as the best to play his position. It's a case of "everything you can do I can do better," because Chris Paul does everything Billups can do to an amazing level.

Winner: Chauncey Billups

SG: Dahntay Jones vs. Rasual Butler

I would consider J.R. Smith the official shooting guard for the Nuggs, but according to their depth chart, Jones is number one. I don't know too much about him, but I know Rasual Butler can be a threat. He's not a game changer by any means, but wth Chris Paul giving him great looks, and with the attention given to Paul and West, he should have some room to operate.

If the Hornets are going to advance, Butler needs to make his mark on the series.

Winner: Rasual Butler

SF: Carmelo Anthony vs. Peja Stojakavic

Peja is without question on the downside of his career, and 'Melo is still finding exactly what his peak is. This is make or break time for 'Melo. Without Iverson, he needs to take control of the offense, and he needs to show the team that he is the superstar he's billed to be.

He's got the talents to do it, and he talks like he's motivated to do it, but if the Hornets advance, the blame will be on no one but Anthony, and the Nuggets might start preparing for a future without him if he can't deliver.

Peja has much lower expectations, and if he can hit the corner three, and stay out of his own way on defense, he should add to the Hornets nd not take anything away.

Winner: Carmelo Anthony

PF: Kenyon Martin vs. David West

Another intriguing matchup. Martin has shown flashes in his career, but is far from a given at his position. David West, on the other hand, is a bona fide All-Star, and a physical low-post presence combined with a sweet shoooting stroke.

The offense runs through him and Paul, so the two of them need to keep producing for the entire series. West is more than capable, but the question is, can he sustain it for an entire series?

He did well against the Mavericks last year, but during the Spurs series, he shot .565, .182, .526, .267, .640, .286, and .421 across the seven games, not exactly a model of consistency.

He's going to do better than that, especially with the Hornets situation at center.

Winner: David West

C: Nene vs. Tyson Chandler

This is where the series will be made for the Nuggets. You know what you're getting from 'Melo and Billups, but Nene needs to work hard on both ends of the floor.

With Chandler banged up, suddenly Chris Paul's favorite alley-oop target isn't there, and suddenly the paint isn't locked down on defense. A less-than-100% Chandler, combined with Melvin Ely and Hilton Armstrong, means that Nene needs to make a difference down low, which he is more than capable of, given his performance over the last month of the season.

In April, Nene is shooting better than 60 percent from the field , better than 70 percent from the free throw line, and averaging 7.4 rebounds and a block per game. If he can keep it up, the Nuggets should advance.

Winner: Nene

Bench:

New Orleans is frightfully thin, with the exception of James Posey. Antonio Daniels and Ely/Armstrong are far apart from their starter counterparts. Julian Wright is talented, but he won't be able to do much this series.

Denver on the other hand, has sharpshooting J.R. Smith coming off of the bench, not to mention a sparkplug defensive player in Chris Andersen, and Linas Kleiza provides a multi-faceted attack as well.

Denver's depth should give them the edge, because West and Paul can't play all 48 minutes.

Winner: Denver

Pick: Nuggets in five

How the Mavs can win the title THIS year

The Dallas Mavericks will open up the playoffs facing the San Antonio Spurs. While this will prove to be a daunting task, no Ginobili and a banged-up Duncan could make the raod easier. I'll go deeper into this matchup when I break down the individual matchups for the first round.

Let's just say that this series is entirely winnable, and with the way the Mavs have been playing of late, they should be able to stop the Spurs.

They will play the winner of the Hornets-Nuggets series, which will probably be the Nuggets. While Chris Paul will probably have a big series and David West should have some good games, I think Chauncey will make enough of a difference to help the Nuggets finally advance past the first round.

The Mavericks haven't fared well against the Nuggets this season, but I see no reason why they can't beat them in seven games. Chauncey Billups provides a good matchup for Kidd, but I think that Kidd wins that battle, since Billups lacks the explosiveness of Paul and Parker.

They can put someone like Howard or Wright on 'Melo, and I don't see J.R. Smith dropping 30 points a game like he tends to do against the Mavs in their regular season matchups.

If the Mavs can steal one at the Pepsi Center, then they could very well advance to the Western Conference Finals.

Let's look at the other side of the West. We assume the Lakers will beat the Jazz, probably in four or five games. We can also assume that the Blazers can beat the Rockets, although Aldridge will have his hands full with Scola, the combination of Pryzbilla and Oden and their 12 fouls should be enough to stop Yao.

The Blazers are the one team that the Lakers should be afraid of in the playoffs. They matchup very well with one another, and I think Aldrige and Pryzbilla/Oden can really make life hard for Gasol and Bynum down low, and I think Outlaw could make things hard for Odom.

Let's say the Blazers steal either game one or game two at the Staples Center. The Rose Garden will be on FIRE, and the Blazers should be able to take care of business there. Let's say the Blazers win in five, maybe six, because they are capable of stealing more than one at the Staples Center.

Then you've got a Mavs/Blazers western conference finals, which is the perfect scenario for any Mavs fan. They Mavs have had the Blazers' number at the Rose Garden, and they match up very well with the Blazers.

Steve Francis isn't the kind of explosive PG that can exploit Kidd, and Jerryd Bayless is too young to really make a difference, although he should be capable of it one day. Wright should be able to stop the bleeding with Roy, and the only real worry is Aldrigde.

He averaged 18.7 PPG on 57 percent shooting this year against the Mavs, but I don't think he's ready to take over a series yet. Mavs can win in five or six.

Now, let's look at the East. I think we can safely assume that the Cavs, Heat, Magic and Celtics will advance to the conference semi-finals.

The Cavs will have their hands full with Wade, but the Heat won't beat them. The Celtics should already be afraid of the Magic, and with KG out, I don't think Pierce and Allen will be able to handle the load, particularly when the Magic's interior defense is so strong.

I don't think the Celtics can win four games from the perimeter.

So you've got the Magic and the Cavs in the Eastern Finals, which is exactly what the Cavs should be afraid of. The Magic are a great road team, going 27-14 on the road. If any Eastern team is capable to getting a win at the Q, it's the Magic.

And we've already seen what kind of beatdown the Magic are capable of laying on the Cavs. With a player like Howard ruling the paint, LeBron's go to scoring isn't so easy, and he can expect to earn every point he gets (barring of course, a 2006 Finals version of the officials, which actually isn't that far fetched).

The biggest hurdle is that the Magic will have to win in five games, which will be tough. But if they can take care of business at home, and avoid a LeBron in game seven, they can do it in six.

It's not a lock by any means, but stranger things have happened.

Then you've got yourself a Magic-Mavs finals, which would be something. Finally, some fresh blood in the finals.

While the Magic are a good team, after all, they beat the Cavs and Celtics, the Mavericks match up well with them. Don't expect J.J. Barea to get much time, because the Magic have a lot of tall shooters, but the Mavs are pretty good perimeter defenders, and I think a combination of Hollins' speed and Dampiers' bulk should be able to stop Dwight Howard, at least, as much as can be hoped.

And there you have it, how the Dallas Mavericks can win the title in 2009. At 60-1 odds according to Vegas, I would think about placing that bet.

Admit it, it's not as far fetched as you thought. Everything I've proposed is possible.

The biggest leaps are the Blazers bating the Lakers and the Magic beating the Cavs, but it could happen. We've seen it happen a few times this season, and there's no reason it can't happen in the playoffs.

Gimme some typical!

Well, no actually, don't give me some typical.

But that's what the Mavs did last night, with a typical loss to a good team.

It wasn't just the fact that they lost. Hell, I was OK with the Spurs loss. Well, as OK as you can be after a heartbreaker at home, but we'll let that one lie.

No, this one was typical because it featured a classic Mavs model of losing:

• Ice cold start from the field. The Mavs missed their first five shots, and only managed four points in the first four and a half minutes, leading to a 15-point first quarter.
  
• Conversely, the Nuggets came out swinging. Billups, Anthony, Martin, even DANHTAY FREAKING JONES was throwing down dunks.
  
• The Mavs make it semi-respectable by halftime, and then make a great third quarter run, eventually tying the game at 65.

And here's where it became the most depressing kind of typical Mavs game ever, one I have seen too many of.

The Nuggets have the ball, tied at 65. The crowd is getting into it, Dirk has sunk a few buckets, even George is draining the three-ball.

'Melo misses a jumper, Dirk gets the rebound, and tried to hit George in transition. George isn't paying attention, 'Melo gets the steal.

Now, I knew the Nuggets would hit a three-pointer on this possession. I knew it with every breath in my body.

But the thing about the Mavs is, they like to toy with you. Billups missed a 3-pointer that he makes all the time, and I dared to hope.

Foolish me, Chris Andersen takes a break from blowing lines on the bench (cheap shot, I know, what do you want from me?) and gets the offensive rebound, then finds 'Melo for the three, which were his only points of the quarter.

Dallas stayed close for another three-and-a-half minutes, getting within one, but the deficit turned into three, then five, finally ending the quarter down by four, 75-71.

The Nuggets then proceeded to open up the fourth with a 12-2 run, putting our heroes down for the rest of the game.

Except for, oh, I don't know, a FOUR MINUTE STRETCH where the only points from either team was a pair of free throws from both Nene and Kidd.

Now, this a situation you couldn't have drawn up better.

The Nuggets shot the lights out for most of the game, while Dallas did the opposite. If you can hold them to two points in a four-minute stretch, then you should be able to close the distance, especially if you are holding onto championship aspirations.

But the Mavs churned out:

• 2 turnovers
• Four missed shots (two threes, two layups)
• 1 blocked shot
• A partridge in a pear tree (except replace 'partridge' with 'basketball' and 'pear tree' with 'not in the basket')

The three-PG lineup that was so dynamic for most of the homestand seems to be stale.

While it's been fun to see the Mavs go 5-2, Antoine Wright, Gerald Green, James Singleton, and Shawne Williams, all of whom have looked promising, haven't been getting minutes.

Here's their minute counts for the 7-game homestand:

• Gerald Green: 8
• James Singleton: 2
• Shawne Williams: 79 (played 4 games)
  
• Antoine Wright: 36 (played 2 games)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is a Mavericks bench that, while it has faltered at times, also stood up very well to the Lakers, who have to be considered the benchmark that Western teams are measured by.

These are all young guys (at 27, Singleton is the oldest, the next oldest is 23) who need minutes to develop into players.

Youth is supposed to be something the Mavs are pushing, especially since Dirk just hit 30 and J-Kidd is waging a losing battle with Father Time.

Hopefully Carlisle will learn from what transpired during the homestand. While they went 5-2, they lost to both of the good teams they played.

In fact, the only wins this season that the Mavs have had against good teams were against the Yao-less Rockets, the Manu-less Spurs and the soul-less Suns.

In closing, I leave you with a hilarious quote from Carlisle regarding last night's shooting performance, courtesy of the Dallas Morning News MavsBlog:

"We couldn't hit a bull in the ass with a bass fiddle. When you're not guarding them and not making shots, you're going to suck."

4th Quarter, Part II

All times EST.

12:51 - Jo-Ho is forced to jack up a contested three with a second left of the shot-clock. What happened to offensive consistency? Oh yeah, his name is Gerald Green, who has 13 points in 10 minutes.

12:55 - Dallas is going small for the last four minutes. Is this because they're trying something different, or because their centers have been in foul trouble all night. Whatever it is, it's working.

12:56 - As much as I love Dirk, he always seems to turn it over on a huge possession. This one leads to a Billups three.

12:57 - Dallas should have the ball, but the refs say the ball didn't go behind the glass. Now Denver gets the ball, up by one. If history is any indicator, they will now hit a dagger three, and the game is done for Dallas.

12:58 - Kidd steals from 'Melo, but Bass throws it away, now time for the dagger. Kidd fouls 'Melo, now he has five.

1:00 - Dallas lineup: Kidd, Terry, Green, Bass, Dirk. Three guards, two forwards. Interesting choice. Let's see how it plays out.

1:02 - Dallas down by one, with the ball, what do you think happens? If you guessed up Terry jacking up a contested three with the shot clock expiring, and Dirk fouling 'Melo on the rebound, you'd be right. You'd think they would convert at least ONE clutch possession.

1:03 - Dallas down by three, they had the ball with a minute to go, settle for an iso and a fade away jumper.

1:04 - Kidd makes the and-one on the fast break! He misses the foul shot. Of course. Nuggets lead by one, 19.9 seconds left, timeout.

1:06 - My heart just skipped a beat, J.J. Barea is walking on the floor. Please tell me he's just foul fodder since Kidd has five.

1:07 - J.J. fouls Billups, only the best free-throw shooter on the team, number two in the NBA last season. He misses the first. If only we can avoid an awful offensive possession...

1:08 - Dallas down 102-104, 17.5 seconds remaining. They haven't done squat on key possession, except jack up awful treys. Can they put something together. They also have two more timeouts. This is where no center could hurt them on a miss.

1:09 - Another choke job. Bass loses the ball, 'Melo heads to the line and makes both.

1:11 - 1.1 seconds left, Terry sinks a three. The first clutch play they've had, and it's not all that clutch.

1:14- .4 seconds left, 'Melo to the line, where he is perfect 12-12. He makes it 14-14. Timeout Dallas.

1:16 - And that's your ballgame. Kidd inbounds to Green, who can't get it off in time. If Dallas pulls off one or two more possessions, the game is theirs. Oh, well.

That's gonna do it for all of us here at Dirk Is My Homeboy, thanks for stopping by.

4th Quarter, Part I

All times EST.

12:30 - Alright, down by only 7. Not insurmountable, but Dallas needs to play all 12 minutes. If Dampier can stay on the court for more than a few minutes, maybe they can establish some interior defense. Although, if he does come back in, he's going to have a bull's-eye on him.

12:32 - The first Gerald Green sighting! Now get Dirk out there.

12:33 - Dallas has yet to take an uncontested shot. Meanwhile, Denver pushes the lead to 10.

12:34 - Kidd hits ANOTHER three, giving him 50% for the night, including four of his last six. Terry hits the J, and the lead is down to 5. All of this with Dirk out.

12:35 - Dirk is in, gets a defensive rebound, and GG throws down a monster dunk to bring the deficit down to three. All is suddenly right with the world.

12:37 - GG hits a three, gets the ball in transition, and hits an and-one jumper! Tie game! Can someone PLEASE tell me why he sat for this long?

12:38 - I'll tell you one thing. As much as I hate D-Wade, I do like his new show commercial, with all the radio broadcasts talking trash about him. Maybe it's the overcoming adversity thing, maybe I just like hearing him slandered, but it's a good commercial.

12:41 - Green hits the foul shot to put the Mavs up by one, his eighth straight point. I wonder if www.greenismyhomeboy.blogspot.com is available?

12:42 - J.R. Smith makes the three-point play. I'm sorry Dirk, I'll never stray again.

12:43 - The Mavs have only gotten two offensive boards since the first half. On the other side, the three ball might be coming back, as Dirk buries one to cut the deficit to one.

12:44 -Jo-Ho comes back in. 6:30 to go, Denver leads 91-88. On the floor, we've got Green, Terry, Kidd, Dirk, and Bass. A good group.

12:45 - Dirk is able to pass out of the double team to GG for a trizzle. Tie game. Steal Mavs, fast break lay-up, Dallas now up by two, 93-91. It's go time.

3rd Quarter, Part II

All times EST.

12:13 - I can't even make an on-balance shot, and Dirk just hit an off-balance jumper to tie it. Did I mention that I love that man?

12:14 - While Dallas has no problem scoring, they are letting the Nugs score at will. If this comes down to who has the last possession, I have absolutely no confidence. The one thing Dallas doesn't want to do is get into one of those 120-point shootouts, because that's the one game the Nuggets can usually win.

12:17 - Jason Kidd is the game's leader in boards. If you are over 6'7", you should be ashamed of yourself.

12:19 - Uh-oh. Denver is finding their jumper, just as Dallas is losing theirs.

12:22 - Denver has their biggest lead of the night, eight points. This looks like the quarter Dallas takes off. Dallas has 18 points in the paint in the first quarter, 8 since then, and they've turned over the ball five times without getting any TOs of their own.

12:24 - When you're on the fast break, wouldn't Gerald Green be a better option than a Stack three from the corner? I went almost twenty minutes without mentioning it, and for that, you should be proud.

12:25 - Dirk is off the floor, so don't expect the Mavs to make any dents in the now ten-point deficit.

12:26 - Kidd hits a long two, to maybe stop the bleeding. Then he hits a three in transition. What is going on here? Dallas down by 7, end of the third quarter.

3rd Quarter, Part I

All times EST.

12:03 - Nowitzki starts out hot, hitting a three, then abusing a banged-up Kevin Martin. If he heats up, it could a a great second half.

12:04 - Did we trade Kidd for another Jason K? Jason Kapono maybe? He hits another three, making Dallas 3-of-3 from beyond the arc in the second half.

12:05 - Best sight of the night? Stack, on the bench, will his blue pullover on.

12:06 - For the first time, I noticed 'Melo's new 'do. He actually looks more respectable, but I think "businesslike" is a stretch.

12:08 - KIDD WITH ANOTHER THREE!!! Dallas up by two, 63-61. If he can do this consistently, this Mavs team could have another weapon. And, to bring me down, Dampier gets his fourth foul, after a mere six minutes in.

12:09 - Kidd brings me back down to earth with an airball. Nene, who leads all scorers with 17, just for hurt and left the court. Tie game, 63-all.

Halftime Thoughts

A few nuggets (pardon the pun) from the first half.

- I'm very happy with the offensive rebounding. Because of those extra possessions, Dallas leads despite only shooting 34.6% from the floor. Conversely, Denver is only down by one, despite shooting 36.4% form the floor, but 14-for-15 from the line has helped them.

- Terry leads the Mavs with 12 points. I don't mind him starting, but why on earth isn't Gerald Green getting Stack's minutes? Is it because Stack doesn't like riding the pine? Remember Stack, you could be in New Jersey right now. Say the word, and you'll go to Milwaukee for Mikey Redd so fast...

- Speaking of Redd, the Celtics just hosted the Bucks, and the C's take the game from the Redd-less Bucks, 101-89. Call me crazy, but does Redd look like a skinny, black Ron Jeremy. Maybe the shoe shine fumes are getting to me.

- Josh Child-what? The Hawks are undefeated, even though J-Smoove got injured on a dunk, and might miss a few weeks. I still would have traded a package revolving around Stack for him, but I wouldn't have traded Jo-Ho for him. No matter what you read.

- Stack is 1-for-6. That would normally make me more upset, except for two things:

• He has three rebounds, all offensive.
  
• Billups is 1-for-7 with one assist and one steal in 14 mins

- It's nice to see that Devin Harris dropped 39 on the new-look Pistons. Oh wait, no it's not...

- The Mavs are alternating great help defense with a defense that looks completely lost. If it weren't for poor shooting from the Nugs, they could be in a big hole. Fortunately for the Mavs, the Nuggets aren't exactly famous for consistency.

- Antoine Wright isn't doing crap either. GER-ALD GREEN! GER-ALD GREEN!

- Kidd has looked great. He's hit two threes, has seven rebounds. The problem? All si of his shots have been threes. That's not a bad thing, since they were mostly catch-and-shoot, and he was pretty open, but i would feel much better if he had hit at least one more of those.

2nd Quarter, Part II

All times EST.

11:27 - I would have bet my life that Jason Kidd wouldn't be the one to make the first three, and it would come halfway through the second quarter. And I would be dead by now.

11:29 - Howard makes a catch-and-shoot three that looks as easy as breathing. See? It's not that hard. A Howard jumper follows a Dirk rebound, and Dallas is on a 10-0 run, now leading 42-38. The thing about those jumpers, is the more you make, the more you take, and it doesn't necessarily work in the reverse order.

11:31 - I'm still mind-boggled about that last sentence. I made that up myself. Damn I'm insightful.

11:32 - These new handheld camera Adidas commercials, featuring Duncan, T-Mac, Agent Zero, and others blow. Just saying.

11:34 - You know, without his goatee, Jason Kidd is one ugly dude. His head has the strangest shape. Martin and 'Melo have shredded Dallas on two consecutive possessions, Dallas up by two.

11:35 - Jason Kidd responds with a three. I never thought I would type those words. I take it back, it was called a two.

11:36 - 2:48 left in the first half, Dallas already has 14 offensive boards. Where was that team against the Cavs Monday night?

11:37 - The Mavs have infected the Nuggets with Brickthreeball-itis, and I couldn't be happier about that.

11:38 - For a guy that had cancer a year ago, Nene doesn't seem to be getting too many sympathy calls. He's got two blocking fouls, and he was just fouled on what would have been an and-one.

11:39 - Terry dunks on a fast break. You're telling me if I grow by one inch to Terry's 6'2", I can dunk?

11:40 - Doubling Dirk has cooled him off this quarter. And they just gave Dallas a point for the three Kidd hit five minutes ago.

11:41 - Nothing like a contested three from Terry to end the half. Dallas up by one, 49-48, at the half.

2nd Quarter, Part I

11:13 - Dampier comes in, and within 1:14, has his third foul of the game. Back to Diop, at least for a few minutes until he gets his third foul.

11:14 - Bass and Kleiza are having a nice little rivalry. Bass hits a jumper over him, giving his six points to Kleiza's eight. But Bass also has six rebounds.

11:15 - Antione Wright gets spun around on a hard foul and stays on the ground. Hello? Rick? I think God is telling you to put Gerald Green in.

11:16 - Even is the Mavs lose, it would be worth it if Bass can drive Andersen back to cocaine, which he might do, that's how bad he's abusing him. Too soon?

11:17 - Just saw a trailer for the new Bernie Mac movie, Soul Man. Why can't he just rest in peace? Why do this to him?

11:20 - Dallas looks completely lost without Dirk out there. That's why he's your superstar. FYI: Green is still on the bench, Stack just bricked another one.

11:23 - I thought the NBA got a new marketing theme every year? You're telling me we're in year two of "Where ____ happens"?

11:24 - Dallas is 2-for-11 this quarter, and 0-for-6 from threes for the game. And the Nugs are on an 8-0 run. Their offensive boards are the only thing keeping them in the game.

11:25 - 'Melo misses a dunk, but gets fouled on the putback. Of course he does. Nugs up 38-32 after Anthony sinks two free throws.

1st Quarter, Part II

All time is EST.

11:00 - Bass makes a MONSTER putback jam with one hand. Looks like the smallball is going pretty well, if I do say so myself. Now if we can only get Stackhouse out of there...

11:01 - As A write the last sentence, Stack buries a 20-footer.

11:02 - Dirk (how did he not travel) makes his way around a triple-team to bank it in. Hot damn.

11:03 - 8 of Dallas' 9 field goals have been from the paint. Good stat, although it doesn't account for those awful jumpers.

11:04 -Kleiza gives Denver the lead by hitting a three. He wishes he could be Dirk. Stack responds by bricking a three. I'm getting ready to start a chant in my room. GER-ALD GREEN! GER-ALD GREEN!

11:07 - Denver is on another 7-0 run. Bass gets an offensive rebound, gets rejected by the rim, gets his own rebound and puts it in with .5 seconds to go.

11:08 - Denver is up 26-25 at the end of one. According to the announcer, Billups was the star if the first quarter, even though he is 1-for-5, with only a three to his credit. Sure, it's not like Dirk has nine points and four rebounds or anything. Or does he....

1st Quarter, Part I

All time is EST

10:42 - Announcer mentions that Dallas is only getting to the line 21 times a game this season. Not good, especially since you're one of the best teams in the league at free throws. Too many jumpers.

I have a feeling that's going to be the theme of the evening.

10:45 - Denver is in the midst of a 7-2 run. Not the best way to start a game. And Terry just went for another long jumper. Sigh.

Denver is famously bad on D. Why the hell not penetrate?

10:49 - Imagine if Billups and 'Melo had been playing together since 2003? Would the Pistons have won more titles? Or none? How would 'Melo and 'Sheed gotten on? So many questions.

10:50 - Iso for Josh Howard. Wait, you're telling me this isn't 2006?

10:51 - Damp and Diop both have 2 fouls, and we're six minutes in. At least now the Mavs can try my small ball lineup.

10:54 - Tie 12-12. Dirk driving to the hoop. He's fouled........AND GOALTENDING. BAM!! I have feelings for that man more than any heterosexual male should have for another. And you know what? It doesn't bother me to say it.

10:55 - A stop, and Howard drives to the lane, drawing a foul. See Josh? Isn't that much better.

First few possessions for Dallas

Here's how the first few possessions went:

Turnover.

Dirk break down defender for 2

Jo-Ho settled for the outside jumper. Shock.

Terry penetrates for 2.

Howard settles for a jumper on a fast break. Another shock.


Jo-Ho is falling in love with his jumper WAY too early. He needs to be penetrating against a Camby-less Nuggets team.