Mavs Lose Gortat, I Lose My Dignity

Congratulations Otis Smith. You've managed to do what only the NBA referees have been able to do. You have caused basketball to disgust me.

Not the game itself, but the process. The concept of a restricted free agent. The whole city of Orlando. Anyone with the name "Otis." I hate you all.

Not only did you do something stupid, Mr. Smith, but it was downright cruel of you.

The entire world knew that Gortat wasn't in it for the money. He just wanted minutes.

Is that any way to show respect for Gortat as a human being, when you know he wanted to leave and was ready to take the next step as a basketball player?

At least the Mavs did the classy thing with Brandon Bass. Bass wanted more minutes, but like Gortat, he just happened to have one of the top five players in the game today in the starting slot.

And it looked like things were going to work out swimmingly. You got Bass who could start at the four, and Rashard Lewis could replace Turkoglu at small forward. Lewis excels there anyway, due to his size and shooting ability.

And we got Gortat. It's not like he would play any meaningful minutes in front of Dwight Howard. He just wanted minutes. And like Bass, Gortat did it in a classy way. They didn't tweet about being unhappy or go to the media. They did it by busting their asses every minute they were on the court, and their teams were better off for it.

And when the Magic gave Bass an offer, the Mavericks let him go. They knew he would never be happy in Dallas as long as Dirk was playing, and they were essentially turning Bass into a major need for them, an athletic center.

Just as a good will gesture, Cuban and Co. helped the Magic out to the tune of an $8 million trade exception by facilitating Hedo's move to Toronto. In no way did the Mavericks have to do that.

When you look back, sure it made the numbers go a little smoother, but really it was a gesture. Sort of like a, "Hey, we really need Gortat and you don't, so here's a couple of million to just, *wink wink* let him go."

But Otis Smith had to get too smart for his own good.

Now what do the Magic have? Well, they're paying $35 million to back up the best center in the league. He's stuck there until at least December 1, and it's pretty clear that he's not happy to be there.

That should be real good for the locker room chemistry.

Then, you've got your first team All-NBA center, who is fresh off of a disappearing act in the playoffs. Now, you're sending him a message, "Look Dwight, we really need someone to back you up. We're going to pay out the wazoo to have someone to back you up."

Nice show of faith. It's already been shown that the Daily Double isn't the most robust player mentally. After a heartbreaking game two in the Finals, he was never the same.

So you've got Gortat until December 15? Then what? You send him somewhere. Houston is the most likely candidate. They made a pretty hard push for Gortat as soon as free agency opened up.

What are you getting from Houston? Kyle Lowry and Von Wafer? Yeah, those guys will take you far.

Then you send Gortat into an unfamiliar offense, with an unfamiliar coach in the middle of the season.

And what happens if Houston finds a big man in the meantime? With all the salary clearing happening around the league in preparation for the summer of 2010, who wants to sign a freshly inked big man?

I can't tell you how sick this makes me. The only thing I can liken it to is an unexpected breakup.

Not to trivialize relationships, but the feeling is the same. That black hole in your gut, a feeling that wasn't there earlier today. Earlier today the world was full of possibilities.

If the Lakers lose Odom, could the Mavs make a serious run at the title? With Marion on 'Melo, with the Celtics big three and Shaq a year older, and with no mismatch at the three with Turkoglu gone, could the Mavs have gone all the way?

Sure, by the time the season rolls around, I'll have convinced myself that I didn't really want to get Gortat anyways. Just like you convince yourself that you never really liked her all that much.

Like we needed another center (a foreign whitey to boot!) for the midlevel to pull a Diop. But every time you see Gortat in another uniform, part of you will wonder...

I can picture myself in my office this afternoon, sitting there all fat and happy, no idea of the train wreck that it about to hit me. Now we're in lean times, and the world is a little colder place than it used to be.

This afternoon I had not a care in the world. I was talking to the Polish guy I work with, working on the proper pronunciation of "Marcin Gortat" and thinking of a nickname that involved changing lightbulbs.

Hours ago I was imagining Jason Kidd pulling down rebounds, with Marcin Gortat and Shawn Marion streaking on the wings, and Dirk trailing the play, ready to knock down a three if necessary.

Now all I see is Erick Dampier's rock-gloved hands, reaching out, not for a basketball that will surely bounce right off, but for my throat, and he's draining all the life out of me until at least February.

If you really want to get real, it's almost worse than a breakup. At least then you can call your buddy and say, "Hey, just got dumped, let's go get hammered on a Monday night."

If I call someone and say, "Hey, the Magic just matched the offer for Marcin Gortat, let's go get wasted on a Monday night," I'm just not getting that sympathy.

Of course, it won't hurt like this for long. Sure you might have pangs keeping you awake in the dead of night for the next few nights, but those go away.

But when those go away, so does a part of you. The part that knew what it meant to love. And in it's place is nothing, which is the scariest part of all.

So, Otis Smith you want to match the Mavs' offer for Gortat? Well, how about a fly down to Orlando and match a crowbar with Dwight Howard's kneecap? How does that sound.

The only consolation prize in this whole mess is that I can now use this line when the Mavs play the Magic:

"Dirk was really on fire in the paint last night. You'd think Gortat of all people would know what happens when you grant the German even the smallest of concessions, whether Panzer divisions or the one-legged Euro fade-away."

So if you'll excuse me, I'm going to crank up Pat Benetar's "Love is a Battlefield" and cry myself to sleep.

How about a new Center and Shooting Guard? Is that something you'd be interested in?

The Dallas Mavericks are in a unique, yet unenviable position this offseason. Twelve months before the expected free agent bonanza of 2010, they face the prospect of fading completely out of contention, and taking the Dirk era to an unhappy conclusion.

They are also in an unenviable position when it comes to free agents. Their No. 1 target, Jason Kidd, won't offer something new and different. Rather, the Mavs are just trying to hang on to the player who helped them the year before.

While the re-signing of Kidd can be called a triumph, it is a mixed blessing. Without another move, the Mavericks are in the same place they were last year, and only the Rockets are showing signs that they will not be the same or better than last year.

The Blazers, Nuggets and Spurs have taken steps to put them to the next level, while the Lakers are already at the next level.

The Mavericks do not want to be left in the lurch, especially with a rapidly aging, but effective, core.

Assuming they sign Kidd, the Mavericks have a need at the center position and the shooting guard. With Hall of Famers at the one and four, and an All-Star at the three, the addition of two impact players at the off guard and center position will go a long way towards putting the Mavericks back into the race for the west.

Let's look at the two-guard first.

The Pistons might have already done the Mavs' first step for them. They signed Ben Gordon to a big free-agent deal, who also happens to play the same position as Rip Hamilton, another highly-paid and talented two-guard.

So unless they want to have their two highest players playing the same position, one of them has to move. Logic would suggest that the one to move is the older player—the one without the contract with the still-drying ink.

I've alwasy been a Hamilton fan. He's great at creating his own shot, especially off the dribble, which is exactly what the Mavs need from a two-guard. They don't need a Kobe/D-Wade style shooting guard, who will score 30 points on 25 shots.

No, they need someone like Rip, who will score 20 on 10-15 shots.

So what can the Mavs offer for Hamilton?

Detroit could use a backup point guard, with Stuckey taking the reins this season. J.J. Barea, or even new Mav Rodrigue Beaubois could offer a serviceable backup for Stuckey.

Sure, Barea isn't exactly a world-beater, but ask anyone who watched the Mavs regularly last season, there were many times when he came in, slashed to the bucket, made a key defensive stop, or did some other play that got the team and the crowd fired up.

He can shoot from all over as well, which could provide a decent Plan B should Gordon get swarmed, which is most certainly will.

With the impending departure of Rasheed Wallace, and the possible departure of Antonio McDyess, the Pistons are also looking frighteningly thin at in the frontcourt.

And as we all know, a backcourt is only as good as the big men that support it.

The Mavs have a young player on the rise, Brandon Bass, who is in search of both time and a payday. While he wouldn't command more than the midlevel, he is capable of being a starting forward on the right team, such as Detroit.

With his inside presence and good midrange jumper, he provides a formidable threat and would be a nice complement to Gordon and Villanueva, especially when Villanueva inevitably goes down with some sort of injury.

Plus, he has proven he can play the center on a small-ball team, which would be an intriguing possibility with so many good shooters on Detroit.

Hell, the Mavs could even toss in Antoine Wright if the Pistons neded a good backup. While he's not the model of consistency, Wright provides a good bargain for the numbers, especially for a backup shooting guard.

Now that we've covered the two-guard, let's take a look at the center.

Erick Dampier needs to go. His dead hands, inconsistent play, and nonexistent athleticism need to be turned into something.

Since he most likely won't meet his incentives for the 2010-11 season, he is basically an expiring contract, which is appealing to a lot of teams.

Package him together with Jerry Stackhouse ($2 million buyout, non-guaranteed), and Mark Cuban has quite a stimulus package for a team that is hurting financially.

Now that you mention, it I've got two such teams in mind.

New Orleans Hornets Center Tyson Chandler has reportedly been on the block since the draft. With his ability to rebound and finish the alley-oop, he is the polar opposite of Dampier.

Sure, he disappeared until December last season, and I know he has some nagging injury concerns, but I think the Mavericks have a decent backup center in Ryan Hollins to make up for that.

Chandler for Stack/Dampier would save the Hornets some much needed money, which they were trying to do when they tried to dump Chandler the first time.

Plus, I'll admit it, I would get a certain sick pleasure in watching Chris Paul try to feed alley-oops to the lead-gloved hands of Erick Dampier. But that's neither here nor there.

Chandler is a moderately appealing option, but here's my No. 1: Emeka Okafor.

He puts up a double-double almost every night, and while the points don't always come, the rebounds (especially the offensive ones) do.

And that's what the Mavs need from a center: Someone that can finish the fast break, get 10 boards a night, and shoot close shots at a high percentage.

The Mavericks also have a plethora (thats right, I said plethora) of second-round picks, and maybe even a few appealing young high-flyers that the Bobcats could use.

Gerald Green, in a possible sign-and-trade, could provide some acrobatic offense for a small price, and Brandon Bass and/or Antoine Wright (if not gone to the Pistons) could also be appealing to a Bobcats team looking to rebuild and save some coin.

I would throw everything the Mavs have at an Okafor trade, including Terry. Josh Howard and Dirk is where I draw the line.

With Dirk, Terry, Howard, and hopefully Rip Hamilton handling the scoring, he wouldn't need to pour in the points, just lock down the glass.

Now let's look at the starting five for this dynamo: Kidd, Hamilton, Howard, Dirk and Okafor.

That's a starting five that could go to war with a lot of teams in the West.

I would take them over the Spurs with Richard Jefferson. I would take them over the Nuggets, since a healthy Howard and an athletic center could have made the difference against the Nuggs this year.

Sure, the Mavs might not be loaded up for a run at an All-Star in 2010, but unless it's Wade (who might sign an extension soon anyway) or LeBron James (who probably won't come to Dallas), that doesn't bother me very much.

Bosh is most effective at playing the four, which is what Dirk plays. Plus, as much as I like him, I'm still not convinced he can be the best player on a contender, as last season showed us.

Either way, this brings the Mavericks into the the 2009-10 season with each of their major issues addressed, which is more than a lot of teams can say.

Mavs Swap Picks with Blazers: What's the strategy?

As of approximately 7 p.m. Wednesday, June 24, the Dallas Mavericks completed a trade with the Portland Trailblazers. The Mavericks sent the Blazers their 22nd pick in exchange for the 24th pick, as well as a second-round pick in 2009 and 2010.

While it's seemingly insignificant, Mark Cuban's take on the trade speaks volumes about the Mavericks' draft strategy.

"The guy we want will still be there at No. 24," said Cuban.

What does that mean? Is there any sure pick that will be there for the Mavs at No. 24?

Will Ty Lawson, Terrance Williams, Earl Clark, Johnny Flynn, or Eric Maynor still be on the board?

Each of the players listed should be expected to be selected within the 17th-25th range.

The trade makes it pretty clear; the Mavs are expecting a point guard to be available late enough in the round, since those are the only sure picks to be around.

There is a chance the Nets could select Williams, while the Bobcats could take Earl Clark. One of the reasons why the trade may have occurred is because of Omri Casspi, who Portland may be interested in taking. Now that they have the 22nd pick, they are one pick ahead of the Sacramento Kings, who are also interested in Casspi.

Before we get into who the Mavs should pick, let's examine what another point guard on the Mavericks' roster means.

If they re-sign Jason Kidd, then the Mavericks will have three point guards on the depth chart, plus Jason Terry.

As much as I like J.J. Barea, he won't be more than a good backup, which leaves the Mavs a project to work with.

But what if they're expecting Kidd to walk? Or better yet, what if the Mavs are letting Portland make their pick for them, and reaping two additional picks from it?

How about the Mavs do a sign-and-trade with the Blazers with Kidd for the No. 22 pick and Travis Outlaw?

All of a sudden, the Mavericks have the same player they wanted, a decent role player in Outlaw (Outlaw Maverick jerseys would sell themselves), plus a young point guard.

If I had it my way, I would select Eric Maynor as their point guard.

Johnny Flynn is rising in stock, and might not even make it past the Knicks at No. 8. Lawson will most likely be selected before the Mavs have a chance to take him. My guess is the 76ers or whoever ends up with Minnesota's No. 18 pick will select him.

Jeff Teague will probably be there, but the Mavericks should take Eric Maynor, and there is a higher possibility that he will still be on the board.

The combination of his lack-of-star-power and his alma mater not being a major school will probably allow him to slip. Therefore, the Mavs need to take him.

Eric Maynor and Jason Terry could lead the Mavericks' locker room. Maynor can perform well enough to provide the Mavericks a very dangerous offense.

He can create for others and himself. Not to mention he has the quickness to get in front of other point guards such as Chris Paul and Tony Parker. He has the size to bang with Deron Williams and Chauncey Billups.

He's the kind of player that defies predictions in a way that I like. Like Ricky Rubio, teams seem to be talking themselves out of him, and there's something about that that appeals to me.

The Mavs have second-round picks, which will probably be used as trade bait. They've already got a few picks over in Europe (Shan Foster, Renaldus Seibutus) so they don't need that kind of depth.

But the picks will appeal to rebuilding teams that might not be aversed to stashing players overseas in hopes of reaping a finished product somewhere down the line.

But every plan is only as good as its backup, and if Maynor isn't there, the Mavericks need to go after one of the D.J's.

Who are the D.J.'s? I'm talking about DeJuan Blair or Dajuan Summers. Both are poor-man's versions of Jordan Hill, which is who the Mavs toyed with getting at No. 5 via a trade.

But the Mavs need to focus their energies on Maynor, even if it means turning that No. 24 pick right around. They could send Jerry Stackhouse to the Bobcats for the No. 12 pick, where they might even look into Brandon Jennings. Then, they could use Maynor as the backup.

Either way, it's a no-lose move for the Mavs.

Unless, of course, Eric Maynor goes at No. 23, in which I will then delete all traces of this article.

How to be a Draft Day Winner

The draft. It's like free agency, only more exciting.

Generally, with free agents, you've got a decent idea of what you're going to get, as there are seasons too look at to see how someone performs against the best of the best.

The draft? No such thing.

These players have been playing against inferior competition, whether in college or overseas, and there's no guarantee that they will pan out.

Sure, they could be dominant in college. Michael Beasley was. Kevin Durant was. But translating that game to the pros is a different story.

Emeka Okafor was also dominant, and the Magic were lambasted for passing on him to take a kid with braces, the same kid (now sans braces) who is the best player on a Finals-bound team.

So you never know.

Nothing in the draft is guaranteed. Blake Griffin is supposedly a guarantee. So was Kwame Brown, so was Greg Oden. Things happen.

But the draft is also how teams can go from lottery to championship, sometimes within a few years.

Ask the Spurs what happens when you make the right pick. Or the Bulls (1984 and 2008). Or the Cavaliers.

So it is in the draft that the Dallas Mavericks must find a player to fill a need/all needs.

It's a tall order, but it can be done. Miracles can happen, and the Mavs have the tools to accomplish such a miracle.

The combination of a shaky economy, a buyer's mentality, and some attractive free agents/contracts put the Mavs in a unique position.

They can buy picks, trade up, or find themselves a blue-chip free agent.

I'm not the GM of the Mavs (their choice, not mine), but here's a scenario I would love to see.

Mavs trade Erick Dampier, Jerry Stackhouse and the no. 22 pick to Memphis for the No. 2 pick

As lopsided as that trade is, it's not even the worst trade Memphis has made in the past two seasons.

Memphis has two problems. They don't have size, and they don't have money.

Their lack of size is so extreme, that Hasheem Thabeet is an option for them at no. 2.

Well, why not take Erick Dampier, who's a serviceable center with an expiring contract? It's not like Memphis is gunning for the Finals anytime soon. Pair Dampier with Marc Gasol, and suddenly you've got a pretty solid frontcourt.

Not world-beaters by any means, but a decent combo, which will give them some room at the end of next season.

And Stack's basically expiring deal, plus the lack of a top-five pick to pay, will give Memphis even more cash to not spend on free agents and try and keep themselves afloat.

"With the no. 2 pick, the Dallas Mavericks select Ricky Rubio."

I won't lie. I hear those words in my dreams. I'm getting giddy just thinking about it.

Assuming the Mavericks can re-sign Kidd, Rubio would be the perfect pick. Not only can Rubio learn from one of the greatest point guard mentors the game has ever known, he can split time with Kidd, and by the time Kidd's two-year deal is up, Rubio will be 20 years old, and ready to lead the Mavs into a bright and uncertain future.

Rubio is everything Kidd is, without the slow feet on defense. He can pass with angles never before though possible, he can hit the open shot, and he is young and quick enough to be able to lead the fast break, something the Mavericks got very good at with a full year under Kidd.

Plus, let's be honest here. The word coming out of Rubio's camp is that he doesn't plan on leaving the comfort of Spain without a few guarantees.

Paul Gasol, Marc Gasol, and Juan Carlos Navarro have pretty much warned Rubio of the quagmire his career would become in Memphis.

Rubio also doesn't want to join a team that's going nowhere, which is precisely the destination that most of the lottery teams are heading.

We've knocked out Memphis, but Oklahoma City would be an interesting option for Rubio.

They could move Westbrook to the 2, Durant to the 3 (both of their natural positions) and be set with a young, dynamic core. But OKC isn't exactly the market Rubio and co. had in mind.

Sacramento? They''ll be lucky to have a head coach by the draft, plus they dumped their talent in the trade with the Bulls. They're on the slow train to nowhere (or Las Vegas/Kansas City).

The Wizards? Anothe promising option, but it looks like the No. 5 pick could belong to the Suns in an Amare trade, so we can't count on them.

Rest assured, if the Wiz or the Suns have the No. 5 pick, that's where Rubio will go. The Mavericks need to find a way to jump before those teams, and secure their point guard of the future.

We've seen what a rookie PG can do with a team that has previously failed to live up to its potential. Derrick Rose has got the Bulls in the winning mood again.

It would be perfectly lovely to see Ricky Rubio doing the same thing for the Dallas Mavericks.

Season in Review

As I wipe the tears from my face and drain the last of my pint bottle of whiskey into my morning coffee, it's time to reflect on the 2008-'09 season.

Unlike last year, the Mavs went out with a bang, sending Tim Duncan and his dirty crew to an early exit. Sure, the final series might say "Nuggets win 4-1," but two horrendous fourth quarters and a horrible call are the difference between a five-gamer and a six or seven-gamer.

Did the Mavs overachieve? With an aging point guard past his prime and a few cast-offs from other teams and the Euro leagues, they shot up to the sixth seed on the last day of the season, due to some fortunate losses by other teams.

Did they underachieve? With two hall-of-famers, a former MVP and the current Sixth Man of the Year, they shouldn't have gone out in five games against a Nuggets team that had previously been the doormat of the eventual Western conference champs?

The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle, and that's been the story of the Mavericks this season.

They showed flashes of brilliance, followed by flashes of incompetence, big road wins against good teams, followed by home losses to awful teams, good quarters followed by abysmal ones.

Come Together Over Me

The Mavericks just never seemed to get it all together, like a car with a bad timing belt, they couldn't fire on all cylinders very often.

If the defense was clicking, usually the offense wasn't. The Mavs were able to win a few 85-80 type games, but usually if the shot wasn't falling the defense wasn't exactly stifling.

If the offense was dropping shot like they were hot, too often the other team would come back and reciprocate. The Mavs were much better off in games around the 105-110 range, but those can get away from you real quick with stupid mistakes, especially on the road.

Some of it is due to injury. Josh Howard missed significant time, and played banged up towards the end of the season. While he has been criticized in the past for saying and doing stupid things, he hobbled around on two bad wheels throughout the playoffs and made his mark on quite a few games.

Jason Terry also missed time, although he was on the court for some of it. He was virtually invisible for the playoffs, and this was especially noticeable against the Nuggets, where he bricked three-pointer after three-pointer.

Normally, no team in their right mind would give Terry those shots, but the Nuggets called his bluff time and time again, and he never made them pay.

During the season Jason Terry was an absolute assassin, dropping many a dagger from beyond the arc and/or off the elbow.

Dirk did what he always does, better than he always does, with hardly a shred of recognition. Sure, he was named All-NBA first team, but he beat Tim Duncan by five measly points.

Ask anybody who watches the NBA who was the better player this year, and the answer has to be Dirk. Fourth leading scorer in the league (second for a good chunk of it), less turnovers than ever, and as usual, he stepped up his game in the playoffs.

He got better as the odds got worse, responding to turmoil on his personal life by dropping 33 and 16, 44 and 12, and a near triple double in the Mavs' final game: 32, 10, and seven assists.

Your Love (read: season) Is Like A Roller Coaster Baby

As far as the Mavs got this year, it was a long shot in mid-November, when the Mavs were staring down the barrel of 2-7, rumors of a mutiny with their new coach, and not much to look forward to except the end of their streak of 50-win seasons.

Then came the awakening. An OT win in Madison Square Garden, before the New York Knicks became the New York Cap Space. Dirk and Howard officially began the season that night, with 39 and 15, and 31 and 14, respectively.

The Mavs went on a tear from there, winning 11 out of the next 13 games. Then the questions came again. Devin Harris demolished them in New Jersey, San Antonio beat them in OT and a Christmas Day win at Portland was negated by an ugly finish in Utah.

A rally from 29 points down against Minnesota showed that the Mavs weren't ready to go away, but for every good win, it seemed like the Bucks, Kings, Thunder or Warriors were right there to take away the mojo.

The Mavs showed flashes of their 2006-'07 selves, when they were the most complete team in the NBA. They had a hot starter in Howard, a finisher in Terry, and Dirk to drop his 25 in the middle.

The defense came and went, but it seemed like there were certain nights when the offense could let them win in a shootout.

Centrifugal Force (or Lack thereof)

With All-Stars at the point, shooting guard, small forward and power forward, the one area that was lacking this year was the center.

Erick Dampier had another typical year, flashes of dominance followed by disappearing acts, but his fundamental flaws were quite evident.

His lack of athleticism, his poor hands, and his questionable dedication reared their ugly heads this season. When up against a traditional, bang 'em and hang 'em centers (I just made that term up, it sounds cool though), such as Andrew Bynum, Fabricio Oberto, Chris Kaman, or Kendrick Perkins, they seemed to offset one another.

But find a center than has a little bit of range to his jump shot, and a little zip in his step, and Dampier was left in the lurch. Yao Ming, Chris Bosh, Mehmet Okur, Tyson Chandler, and Nene all took advantage, the latter was especially evident during games one, two, and five of the Denver Series.

Ryan Hollins has some potential, but he needs to bulk up a bit. A legit seven-footer, he weighs 215 pounds, which is the same as people a foot shorter than him weigh. He's got the athleticism, he's got the intensity, but he just doesn't have the body to bang down low with the likes of a Shaq or even a Bynum.

Some good coaching, and another year under his belt should be good for him, but it's yet to be seen if he's anything more than a backup.

And with a team that tends to fall in love with a jump shot like the Mavs, a strong low-post presence can make up for the times when the shot goes cold.

Know Your Role (Players)

During the season, certain players emerged into the spotlight and other faded away.

J.J. Barea was a flash of lightning, giving the Mavs a taste of the Devin Harris/ Tony Parker speed, and giving them an unexpected boost.

Brandon Bass started handing out tickets to the gun show, with thunderous dunks, elbow jumpers, and the knack for just the right play to swing the momentum in the Mavs' favor.

DeSagana Diop, who was once part of a two-headed center tandem that brought the Mavs to the finals, left his game in New Jersey, and was turned into a three-point specialist and a young center.

The three-point specialist didn't live up to his billing, but Ryan Hollins turned into yet another sparkplug off the bench, giving the Mavs an attitude and a knack for the thunderous play.

James Singleton, fresh off the boat from the Euro leagues, has his time in the sun, pulling down incredible amount of rebounds while he was on the floor.

You've Gots To Pay (off) To Play (off)

Coming into the playoffs, a series against the Spurs could have been the quick way to an easy exit, or a chance to start the playoffs with a win over foes of old.

The Mavs came out firing in game one, something they failed to do in the past two postseasons. And it goes to show how important that game is, especially on the road, for a team looking for an upset.

Even a rout in game two couldn't stop the Mavs from handing down a beatdown, despite Parker's almost inhuman scoring throughout the series.

Dirk took a few games to get in the groove, and Terry really never found it, but luckily the bench was able to fill in, and help them get those early wins in game one, three and four.

When Dirk finally awoke, the Spurs were done for.

Now here's the conundrum: The poor bench play of Dallas in the Denver series could be assumed to be a regression to the mean. After all, if they play above average for a few games, chances are they're going to play below average for a few.

Which brings us to the Nuggets series. Dirk found an answer for every defender they threw at him, but the bench couldn't give him much help.

As mentioned before, Jason Terry never really hit the shots he had been getting all season. Though a streaky shooter, a 10-game sample of games should have been a sufficient cycle for him to heat up.

Nene looked like Shaq circa 2001, by abusing Dampier, and 'Melo took the art of the clutch shot and the step-away mid-range jumper to another level.

In the end, it's pretty clear the Nuggets were a better team. Whether it was George Karl or Chauncey Billups, someone taught these guys some defense. All of a sudden Denver has the home crowd of the Warriors of 2007, and the players that feed off of them, e.g. Chris 'Birdman' Andersen and J.R. Smith.

Anthony Carter and his abnormally shaped head also decided on showing up, after a long vacation that coincided with my fantasy ownership of him.

In the end, the series came to athleticism in the frontcourt, where Dampier was thoroughly outplayed (but not outclassed) by Nene and Andersen on both ends of the floor.

Antoine Wright also became Raja Bell to 'Melo's Kobe, though if that meant he was a better defender and three-point shooter I'd gladly take it.

What Are You Thinking, Where Do We Go from Here?

And now the future comes to the forefront. While you're still playing, next season doesn't matter, but now suddenly reality creeps in.

The reality that Jason Kidd is now on the market, the reality that Brandon Bass might want more minutes and a bigger payday, the reality that Mark Cuban is willing to be a buyer in a seller's market, and the reality that we're only 12 months away from the Free Agent Summer of 2010.

Unless Ryan Hollins gets some great coaching over the summer, the center position is a big question mark. Someone like Tyson Chandler might be available, but with his injury history, he might not be worth it. Though someone who can actually finish an alley-oop might be a welcome change.

But I'm not here to talk about the future just yet. Right now I'm content with looking back on a season that was at least interesting, and appreciating what could have been a last hurrah for this incarnation of the Dallas Mavericks.

Is a trip to the second round enough to make Cuban back off his threat to blow up the team? Are the role players worth investing another year (Dirk's 31st)?

I'm not quite ready to noodle over those questions yet. Right now, it's time for a trip to the liquor store, another box of Kleenex and a month of basketball without a 7'0" German with the finest cheekbones this side of the Rhein, followed by five months of a basketball-less vacuum.

Go Mavs.

Anatomy of a Swish

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Mavs-Nuggs Game One: Crunching the Numbers

I've never been a big numbers guy. You can use numbers to prove anything. 76 percent of people know that.

But statistics are a booming business for a reason. They look at the past to predict the future, and that holds very true in sports.

Sure, Nene might have dropped 24 on the Dallas Mavericks yesterday, but seven seasons worth of stats tell us that he averages about 11.2 PPG, so that output probably isn't normal.

A look at the numbers from game one aren't exactly promising for the Mavericks, so let's take a look.

10: The number of shots taken by Carmelo Anthony

23: The amount of points he scored on those shots.

6: The number of points scored and assisted dished by Chauncey Billups.

What do those three numbers tell you? That the two best players on the Nuggets didn't exactly have breakout games, but the Nuggs were able to win by 14.

'Melo only shot 10 times, but he made seven of those, and hit another seven free throws. A very efficient game from him, despite him sitting out much of the first half with foul trouble.

The Mavericks couldn't have asked for a better opportunity in the first half, and yet when it ended they were trailing by four.

The defensive gameplan also worked on Billups, as he didn't get to the line, and his six points were a result of two three-pointers, which I can live with.

What I can't live with is the fact that Billups scores 17.7 PPG, so we can be counted on do do a lot more damage as the series goes on.

What I can't live with is that 'Melo takes 18.3 shos a game, and if he is shooting as his current clip, that means a few over-30 point games.

Let's look at some of the Mavericks' numbers.

28: The number of points scored by Dirk Nowitzki.

32: The number of minutes played by Jason Terry.

15: The number of points scored by Jason Terry, Josh Howard and Jason Kidd

For the first two on that list, 15 is much too low, for the third, more than you can expect.

For a guy who played 32 minutes, Jason Terry was absolutely invisible. If him and Brandon Bass had a "who can make the least impact off of the bench in game one" competition, they would go into more overtimes than the Bulls-Celtics series.

Bass, whose athleticism is going to be sorely needed to compete with the likes of Chris Andersen and Nene, did not come out of the gates with the physicality and energy that the Mavs needed.

Ryan Hollins and Bass are going to be needed to make much more of an impact than they did in game one, because Dampier is a step too slow to hang with Andersen and Nene.

A few more numbers:

8: The number of turnovers committed by Jason Kidd in game one

3: The number of turnovers committed by Jason Kidd in five games against the Spurs.

The Kidd turnovers only bother me because they wasted an otherwise great offensive game from Kidd. For a while in the first half, it was 2003 all over again. Kidd was hitting open threes, hitting elbow jumpers, he even tossed in a floater that made me think that the Mavs had traded for Chris Paul at halftime.

Kidd can't be counted on to drop in 15 a game, and he shouldn't be. In a way, he deserved a lot of credit for contributing. It was clear that after Howard's ankle injury that Howard couldn't (or wouldn't) get as aggressive as he needed to be, so Kidd tok up some of the slack.

The Nuggets gave him space, and he made them pay for it.

But in the debacle known as the fourth quarter, Jason Kidd went to another rarely seen aspect of his game, a turnover machine. Forced bounce passes, miscommunications with other players and sloppy ball handling became a disease that Kidd quickly spread to the other Mavericks as the fourth quarter got away from them.

Now here's where the numbers game gets a little bit ugly. You could argue that the Mavericks beat the numbers against the Spurs. Dirk and Terry didn't play up to their usual levels for most of the series, but the reserves like Bass, Hollins and J.J. Barea played above their levels, so the Mavs were able to win.

ell, yesterday, aside from Jason Terry, we saw a regression to the mean. Dirk got his points, and the role players didn't. Which is bad news since a regression to the mean seems to mean an "L" for Dallas against the Nuggets.

So do the Mavericks come out tomorrow night and have another game that defies the numbers? More importantly, will that matter?

Assume Kidd doesn't turn the ball over eight times, assume Terry and Howard score 20-plus, assume Brandon Bass puts up eight and four, his season average. Sounds good right?

Except we have to be fair. Assume 'Melo shoots more than 10 shots. Assume Billups scores more than 6 points.

Sure, Nene probably won't score another 24, and Andersen probably won't block six more shots, but when the last two paragraphs are thrown together, does it help the Mavericks gain an extra 15 net points? Especially at the Pepsi Center?

I sure hope so, but I don't know if the numbers are behind me.