How to be a Draft Day Winner

The draft. It's like free agency, only more exciting.

Generally, with free agents, you've got a decent idea of what you're going to get, as there are seasons too look at to see how someone performs against the best of the best.

The draft? No such thing.

These players have been playing against inferior competition, whether in college or overseas, and there's no guarantee that they will pan out.

Sure, they could be dominant in college. Michael Beasley was. Kevin Durant was. But translating that game to the pros is a different story.

Emeka Okafor was also dominant, and the Magic were lambasted for passing on him to take a kid with braces, the same kid (now sans braces) who is the best player on a Finals-bound team.

So you never know.

Nothing in the draft is guaranteed. Blake Griffin is supposedly a guarantee. So was Kwame Brown, so was Greg Oden. Things happen.

But the draft is also how teams can go from lottery to championship, sometimes within a few years.

Ask the Spurs what happens when you make the right pick. Or the Bulls (1984 and 2008). Or the Cavaliers.

So it is in the draft that the Dallas Mavericks must find a player to fill a need/all needs.

It's a tall order, but it can be done. Miracles can happen, and the Mavs have the tools to accomplish such a miracle.

The combination of a shaky economy, a buyer's mentality, and some attractive free agents/contracts put the Mavs in a unique position.

They can buy picks, trade up, or find themselves a blue-chip free agent.

I'm not the GM of the Mavs (their choice, not mine), but here's a scenario I would love to see.

Mavs trade Erick Dampier, Jerry Stackhouse and the no. 22 pick to Memphis for the No. 2 pick

As lopsided as that trade is, it's not even the worst trade Memphis has made in the past two seasons.

Memphis has two problems. They don't have size, and they don't have money.

Their lack of size is so extreme, that Hasheem Thabeet is an option for them at no. 2.

Well, why not take Erick Dampier, who's a serviceable center with an expiring contract? It's not like Memphis is gunning for the Finals anytime soon. Pair Dampier with Marc Gasol, and suddenly you've got a pretty solid frontcourt.

Not world-beaters by any means, but a decent combo, which will give them some room at the end of next season.

And Stack's basically expiring deal, plus the lack of a top-five pick to pay, will give Memphis even more cash to not spend on free agents and try and keep themselves afloat.

"With the no. 2 pick, the Dallas Mavericks select Ricky Rubio."

I won't lie. I hear those words in my dreams. I'm getting giddy just thinking about it.

Assuming the Mavericks can re-sign Kidd, Rubio would be the perfect pick. Not only can Rubio learn from one of the greatest point guard mentors the game has ever known, he can split time with Kidd, and by the time Kidd's two-year deal is up, Rubio will be 20 years old, and ready to lead the Mavs into a bright and uncertain future.

Rubio is everything Kidd is, without the slow feet on defense. He can pass with angles never before though possible, he can hit the open shot, and he is young and quick enough to be able to lead the fast break, something the Mavericks got very good at with a full year under Kidd.

Plus, let's be honest here. The word coming out of Rubio's camp is that he doesn't plan on leaving the comfort of Spain without a few guarantees.

Paul Gasol, Marc Gasol, and Juan Carlos Navarro have pretty much warned Rubio of the quagmire his career would become in Memphis.

Rubio also doesn't want to join a team that's going nowhere, which is precisely the destination that most of the lottery teams are heading.

We've knocked out Memphis, but Oklahoma City would be an interesting option for Rubio.

They could move Westbrook to the 2, Durant to the 3 (both of their natural positions) and be set with a young, dynamic core. But OKC isn't exactly the market Rubio and co. had in mind.

Sacramento? They''ll be lucky to have a head coach by the draft, plus they dumped their talent in the trade with the Bulls. They're on the slow train to nowhere (or Las Vegas/Kansas City).

The Wizards? Anothe promising option, but it looks like the No. 5 pick could belong to the Suns in an Amare trade, so we can't count on them.

Rest assured, if the Wiz or the Suns have the No. 5 pick, that's where Rubio will go. The Mavericks need to find a way to jump before those teams, and secure their point guard of the future.

We've seen what a rookie PG can do with a team that has previously failed to live up to its potential. Derrick Rose has got the Bulls in the winning mood again.

It would be perfectly lovely to see Ricky Rubio doing the same thing for the Dallas Mavericks.

Season in Review

As I wipe the tears from my face and drain the last of my pint bottle of whiskey into my morning coffee, it's time to reflect on the 2008-'09 season.

Unlike last year, the Mavs went out with a bang, sending Tim Duncan and his dirty crew to an early exit. Sure, the final series might say "Nuggets win 4-1," but two horrendous fourth quarters and a horrible call are the difference between a five-gamer and a six or seven-gamer.

Did the Mavs overachieve? With an aging point guard past his prime and a few cast-offs from other teams and the Euro leagues, they shot up to the sixth seed on the last day of the season, due to some fortunate losses by other teams.

Did they underachieve? With two hall-of-famers, a former MVP and the current Sixth Man of the Year, they shouldn't have gone out in five games against a Nuggets team that had previously been the doormat of the eventual Western conference champs?

The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle, and that's been the story of the Mavericks this season.

They showed flashes of brilliance, followed by flashes of incompetence, big road wins against good teams, followed by home losses to awful teams, good quarters followed by abysmal ones.

Come Together Over Me

The Mavericks just never seemed to get it all together, like a car with a bad timing belt, they couldn't fire on all cylinders very often.

If the defense was clicking, usually the offense wasn't. The Mavs were able to win a few 85-80 type games, but usually if the shot wasn't falling the defense wasn't exactly stifling.

If the offense was dropping shot like they were hot, too often the other team would come back and reciprocate. The Mavs were much better off in games around the 105-110 range, but those can get away from you real quick with stupid mistakes, especially on the road.

Some of it is due to injury. Josh Howard missed significant time, and played banged up towards the end of the season. While he has been criticized in the past for saying and doing stupid things, he hobbled around on two bad wheels throughout the playoffs and made his mark on quite a few games.

Jason Terry also missed time, although he was on the court for some of it. He was virtually invisible for the playoffs, and this was especially noticeable against the Nuggets, where he bricked three-pointer after three-pointer.

Normally, no team in their right mind would give Terry those shots, but the Nuggets called his bluff time and time again, and he never made them pay.

During the season Jason Terry was an absolute assassin, dropping many a dagger from beyond the arc and/or off the elbow.

Dirk did what he always does, better than he always does, with hardly a shred of recognition. Sure, he was named All-NBA first team, but he beat Tim Duncan by five measly points.

Ask anybody who watches the NBA who was the better player this year, and the answer has to be Dirk. Fourth leading scorer in the league (second for a good chunk of it), less turnovers than ever, and as usual, he stepped up his game in the playoffs.

He got better as the odds got worse, responding to turmoil on his personal life by dropping 33 and 16, 44 and 12, and a near triple double in the Mavs' final game: 32, 10, and seven assists.

Your Love (read: season) Is Like A Roller Coaster Baby

As far as the Mavs got this year, it was a long shot in mid-November, when the Mavs were staring down the barrel of 2-7, rumors of a mutiny with their new coach, and not much to look forward to except the end of their streak of 50-win seasons.

Then came the awakening. An OT win in Madison Square Garden, before the New York Knicks became the New York Cap Space. Dirk and Howard officially began the season that night, with 39 and 15, and 31 and 14, respectively.

The Mavs went on a tear from there, winning 11 out of the next 13 games. Then the questions came again. Devin Harris demolished them in New Jersey, San Antonio beat them in OT and a Christmas Day win at Portland was negated by an ugly finish in Utah.

A rally from 29 points down against Minnesota showed that the Mavs weren't ready to go away, but for every good win, it seemed like the Bucks, Kings, Thunder or Warriors were right there to take away the mojo.

The Mavs showed flashes of their 2006-'07 selves, when they were the most complete team in the NBA. They had a hot starter in Howard, a finisher in Terry, and Dirk to drop his 25 in the middle.

The defense came and went, but it seemed like there were certain nights when the offense could let them win in a shootout.

Centrifugal Force (or Lack thereof)

With All-Stars at the point, shooting guard, small forward and power forward, the one area that was lacking this year was the center.

Erick Dampier had another typical year, flashes of dominance followed by disappearing acts, but his fundamental flaws were quite evident.

His lack of athleticism, his poor hands, and his questionable dedication reared their ugly heads this season. When up against a traditional, bang 'em and hang 'em centers (I just made that term up, it sounds cool though), such as Andrew Bynum, Fabricio Oberto, Chris Kaman, or Kendrick Perkins, they seemed to offset one another.

But find a center than has a little bit of range to his jump shot, and a little zip in his step, and Dampier was left in the lurch. Yao Ming, Chris Bosh, Mehmet Okur, Tyson Chandler, and Nene all took advantage, the latter was especially evident during games one, two, and five of the Denver Series.

Ryan Hollins has some potential, but he needs to bulk up a bit. A legit seven-footer, he weighs 215 pounds, which is the same as people a foot shorter than him weigh. He's got the athleticism, he's got the intensity, but he just doesn't have the body to bang down low with the likes of a Shaq or even a Bynum.

Some good coaching, and another year under his belt should be good for him, but it's yet to be seen if he's anything more than a backup.

And with a team that tends to fall in love with a jump shot like the Mavs, a strong low-post presence can make up for the times when the shot goes cold.

Know Your Role (Players)

During the season, certain players emerged into the spotlight and other faded away.

J.J. Barea was a flash of lightning, giving the Mavs a taste of the Devin Harris/ Tony Parker speed, and giving them an unexpected boost.

Brandon Bass started handing out tickets to the gun show, with thunderous dunks, elbow jumpers, and the knack for just the right play to swing the momentum in the Mavs' favor.

DeSagana Diop, who was once part of a two-headed center tandem that brought the Mavs to the finals, left his game in New Jersey, and was turned into a three-point specialist and a young center.

The three-point specialist didn't live up to his billing, but Ryan Hollins turned into yet another sparkplug off the bench, giving the Mavs an attitude and a knack for the thunderous play.

James Singleton, fresh off the boat from the Euro leagues, has his time in the sun, pulling down incredible amount of rebounds while he was on the floor.

You've Gots To Pay (off) To Play (off)

Coming into the playoffs, a series against the Spurs could have been the quick way to an easy exit, or a chance to start the playoffs with a win over foes of old.

The Mavs came out firing in game one, something they failed to do in the past two postseasons. And it goes to show how important that game is, especially on the road, for a team looking for an upset.

Even a rout in game two couldn't stop the Mavs from handing down a beatdown, despite Parker's almost inhuman scoring throughout the series.

Dirk took a few games to get in the groove, and Terry really never found it, but luckily the bench was able to fill in, and help them get those early wins in game one, three and four.

When Dirk finally awoke, the Spurs were done for.

Now here's the conundrum: The poor bench play of Dallas in the Denver series could be assumed to be a regression to the mean. After all, if they play above average for a few games, chances are they're going to play below average for a few.

Which brings us to the Nuggets series. Dirk found an answer for every defender they threw at him, but the bench couldn't give him much help.

As mentioned before, Jason Terry never really hit the shots he had been getting all season. Though a streaky shooter, a 10-game sample of games should have been a sufficient cycle for him to heat up.

Nene looked like Shaq circa 2001, by abusing Dampier, and 'Melo took the art of the clutch shot and the step-away mid-range jumper to another level.

In the end, it's pretty clear the Nuggets were a better team. Whether it was George Karl or Chauncey Billups, someone taught these guys some defense. All of a sudden Denver has the home crowd of the Warriors of 2007, and the players that feed off of them, e.g. Chris 'Birdman' Andersen and J.R. Smith.

Anthony Carter and his abnormally shaped head also decided on showing up, after a long vacation that coincided with my fantasy ownership of him.

In the end, the series came to athleticism in the frontcourt, where Dampier was thoroughly outplayed (but not outclassed) by Nene and Andersen on both ends of the floor.

Antoine Wright also became Raja Bell to 'Melo's Kobe, though if that meant he was a better defender and three-point shooter I'd gladly take it.

What Are You Thinking, Where Do We Go from Here?

And now the future comes to the forefront. While you're still playing, next season doesn't matter, but now suddenly reality creeps in.

The reality that Jason Kidd is now on the market, the reality that Brandon Bass might want more minutes and a bigger payday, the reality that Mark Cuban is willing to be a buyer in a seller's market, and the reality that we're only 12 months away from the Free Agent Summer of 2010.

Unless Ryan Hollins gets some great coaching over the summer, the center position is a big question mark. Someone like Tyson Chandler might be available, but with his injury history, he might not be worth it. Though someone who can actually finish an alley-oop might be a welcome change.

But I'm not here to talk about the future just yet. Right now I'm content with looking back on a season that was at least interesting, and appreciating what could have been a last hurrah for this incarnation of the Dallas Mavericks.

Is a trip to the second round enough to make Cuban back off his threat to blow up the team? Are the role players worth investing another year (Dirk's 31st)?

I'm not quite ready to noodle over those questions yet. Right now, it's time for a trip to the liquor store, another box of Kleenex and a month of basketball without a 7'0" German with the finest cheekbones this side of the Rhein, followed by five months of a basketball-less vacuum.

Go Mavs.

Anatomy of a Swish

Interested in how your favorite players make their shots look so good?

Click here to see my analysis of different NBA superstars and their shots.

Mavs-Nuggs Game One: Crunching the Numbers

I've never been a big numbers guy. You can use numbers to prove anything. 76 percent of people know that.

But statistics are a booming business for a reason. They look at the past to predict the future, and that holds very true in sports.

Sure, Nene might have dropped 24 on the Dallas Mavericks yesterday, but seven seasons worth of stats tell us that he averages about 11.2 PPG, so that output probably isn't normal.

A look at the numbers from game one aren't exactly promising for the Mavericks, so let's take a look.

10: The number of shots taken by Carmelo Anthony

23: The amount of points he scored on those shots.

6: The number of points scored and assisted dished by Chauncey Billups.

What do those three numbers tell you? That the two best players on the Nuggets didn't exactly have breakout games, but the Nuggs were able to win by 14.

'Melo only shot 10 times, but he made seven of those, and hit another seven free throws. A very efficient game from him, despite him sitting out much of the first half with foul trouble.

The Mavericks couldn't have asked for a better opportunity in the first half, and yet when it ended they were trailing by four.

The defensive gameplan also worked on Billups, as he didn't get to the line, and his six points were a result of two three-pointers, which I can live with.

What I can't live with is the fact that Billups scores 17.7 PPG, so we can be counted on do do a lot more damage as the series goes on.

What I can't live with is that 'Melo takes 18.3 shos a game, and if he is shooting as his current clip, that means a few over-30 point games.

Let's look at some of the Mavericks' numbers.

28: The number of points scored by Dirk Nowitzki.

32: The number of minutes played by Jason Terry.

15: The number of points scored by Jason Terry, Josh Howard and Jason Kidd

For the first two on that list, 15 is much too low, for the third, more than you can expect.

For a guy who played 32 minutes, Jason Terry was absolutely invisible. If him and Brandon Bass had a "who can make the least impact off of the bench in game one" competition, they would go into more overtimes than the Bulls-Celtics series.

Bass, whose athleticism is going to be sorely needed to compete with the likes of Chris Andersen and Nene, did not come out of the gates with the physicality and energy that the Mavs needed.

Ryan Hollins and Bass are going to be needed to make much more of an impact than they did in game one, because Dampier is a step too slow to hang with Andersen and Nene.

A few more numbers:

8: The number of turnovers committed by Jason Kidd in game one

3: The number of turnovers committed by Jason Kidd in five games against the Spurs.

The Kidd turnovers only bother me because they wasted an otherwise great offensive game from Kidd. For a while in the first half, it was 2003 all over again. Kidd was hitting open threes, hitting elbow jumpers, he even tossed in a floater that made me think that the Mavs had traded for Chris Paul at halftime.

Kidd can't be counted on to drop in 15 a game, and he shouldn't be. In a way, he deserved a lot of credit for contributing. It was clear that after Howard's ankle injury that Howard couldn't (or wouldn't) get as aggressive as he needed to be, so Kidd tok up some of the slack.

The Nuggets gave him space, and he made them pay for it.

But in the debacle known as the fourth quarter, Jason Kidd went to another rarely seen aspect of his game, a turnover machine. Forced bounce passes, miscommunications with other players and sloppy ball handling became a disease that Kidd quickly spread to the other Mavericks as the fourth quarter got away from them.

Now here's where the numbers game gets a little bit ugly. You could argue that the Mavericks beat the numbers against the Spurs. Dirk and Terry didn't play up to their usual levels for most of the series, but the reserves like Bass, Hollins and J.J. Barea played above their levels, so the Mavs were able to win.

ell, yesterday, aside from Jason Terry, we saw a regression to the mean. Dirk got his points, and the role players didn't. Which is bad news since a regression to the mean seems to mean an "L" for Dallas against the Nuggets.

So do the Mavericks come out tomorrow night and have another game that defies the numbers? More importantly, will that matter?

Assume Kidd doesn't turn the ball over eight times, assume Terry and Howard score 20-plus, assume Brandon Bass puts up eight and four, his season average. Sounds good right?

Except we have to be fair. Assume 'Melo shoots more than 10 shots. Assume Billups scores more than 6 points.

Sure, Nene probably won't score another 24, and Andersen probably won't block six more shots, but when the last two paragraphs are thrown together, does it help the Mavericks gain an extra 15 net points? Especially at the Pepsi Center?

I sure hope so, but I don't know if the numbers are behind me.

2009 West Playoffs: (4) Blazers vs. (5) Rockets

(4) Portland Trailblazers vs. (5) Houston Rockets

Interestingly enough, this matchup was decided before the Blazers/Nuggets game, all that remained was to see who would get homecourt.

The person who has the most to lose in this series won't even be on the court. Tracy McGrady. If the Rockets beat the young, upstart, Blazers, the team that people are saying are the only challengers to the Lakers in the West, then people McGrady loses a lot of value.

Teams that could have been thinking about taking his contract in a trade will think twice, given his injury history and the economy, and the Rockets will view him as the guy who was holding them back.

Rockets fans can envision a world where Yao and Artest can take them beyond the first round, and if they can dump McGrady for another, better free agent in 2010.

The Blazers can shed the ghosts of the past, and accelerate their plans as the team of the future, and with Kobe age, the decline of the Suns, Spurs and Mavs, and Hornets' owner George Shinn's notorious penny-pinching, they could be poised to take over the west.

PG: Steve Blake vs. Aaron Brooks

Who knew at the beginning of the year that it would turn out like this? Steve Blake has experiences a mini-resurgence and has a young heir in Jerryd Bayless to take the reins, and he has played perfectly within himself to help his team be the best they can be.

Besides hitting the occasional three and making some end-of-game free throws, not much of the shooting burden will fall on Blake.

Aaron Brooks started the year second on the depth chart, and filled in so well during Rafer Alston's injury, that the Rockets were willing to trade Alston to give Brooks the reins. He's capable of a breakout game or two on the offensive end, and he runs the offense nicely.

Winner: Aaron Brooks

SG: Brandon Roy vs. Ron Artest

A great matchup. Roy has emerged into a genuine assassin, and probably has the most complete game of any player not named Kobe in the game today. He can kill you on both ends of the floor, and from every spot on the floor. He's capable of miracle shots, momentum killers and boosters, and has a very bright future in the NBA.

But can Ron Artest stop Roy? Between Battier and Artest, Roy has to deal with the two most talented perimeter defenders in the game. As the primary offensive threat, Roy will have to be careful and pick his moments, but he's smart enough to do that.

If Artest can do damage on the offensive end, the Rockets could really be onto something. With McGrady out, Artest needs to provide those points, and he needs to be smart about his shots, something he sometimes gets away from.

If he gets rattled and start jacking up bad threes, especially if Roy starts abusing him it will be very easy for Houston to come unglued and suffer yet another first round defeat.

Winner: Brandon Roy

SF: Nicholas Batum vs. Shane Battier

This is the chance for Nicholas Batum to make a name for himself, other than being the French guy who isn't Tony Parker or Boris Diaw. If he can score with regularity, that spreads Artest and Battier apart, and will open things up for Portland's primary weapon, Roy.

Battier has both the easiest and most difficult job of the game. He has to play good D, and make the open three when called to do so. But he has to play good D against someone like Roy or LaMarcus Aldridge, and he has to do it well.

Winner: Shane Battier

PF: LaMarcus Aldrige vs. Luis Scola

The two frontcourt matchups in this series are the most intriguing pair. Aldridge has the potential to be one of the top power forwards in the game, combining a pretty decent low-post arsenal with a sweet jump shot, and a pretty good skill set. His shot is streak at times, and he tends to slack on defense, but he is rapidly improving.

With Scola, you have a "sophomore" who is one of the most physical players playing in the game. A good shooter, a great rebounder, he will give Aldridge all the bumping he can handle, and then some. It will be interesting to see those two go at it, and to see who comes out on top, as this matchup may very well decide a series that goes seven games.

Winner:LaMarcus Aldridge

C: Joel Pryzbilla vs. Yao Ming

With his low-post skill set, the Trailblazers are going to need every single foul they can get. The problem with Greg Oden is that he might give too many of those away.

Yao can make anyone pay from anywhere inside of 18-feet, and he has managed to stay healthy this season. The pessimist in me says that this means he's facing an injury in this series, which will spell doom for the Rockets. The optimist in me says that playing more than 50 games (77 to be exact) for the first time since 2004-05 will give him the confidence he needs to break through to the next step.

If Yao can get the Portland big men in foul trouble, this will place an extraordinary strain on their reserves, and he could have a huge series.

Winner: Yao Ming

Bench:

Two good benches. Portland's features two people that could be starters on a number of other teams in Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw, as well as Greg Oden. Greg Oden has a real chance to make a splash if he can stay out of foul trouble and make life difficult for the Yao.

Houston's features a promising point guard in Kyle Lowry, who has started to usurp minutes from Aaron Brooks, and two possible difference makers in Von Wafer and Carl Landry.

Portland's bench should have the edge here, but if they cede that to Houston, then they won't go very far.

Winner: Portland

Pick: Portland in 6

2009 Playoffs: (3) Spurs vs. (6) Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks have closed the season with a flourish, or so I'm told, I don't follow them all that closely. The Spurs have limped to the finish, which stands in stark contrast to how they usually finish the season, playing their best basketball. Both of these teams have will have a chance to extend their window by at least a week, a the expense of slamming the other's shut.

For the last few years, the hierarchy in the West has always been Spurs, Mavs, Suns. The Suns are stuck in third place as far as that goes, and now the Mavs have a chance to climb to the top, possibly for the last time.

Ginobili has always been a Mavs killer, and with his absence and Duncan's knees, the Spurs are as ripe for the plucking as they have always been.

PG: Tony Parker vs. Jason Kidd

Old-school vs. new school. For two people who play the same position, the two couldn't have more opposite games. With Manu out, Parker must be the first or second option on offense, while Kidd is often fourth or fifth.

We all know that Parker will probably have a field day on Kidd on the offensive end. His speed can't be matched by Kidd, and any help the Mavs will give Kidd will only open the window for another shooter to bomb the Mavs from long range.

Kidd needs to do exactly what he has been doing. Push the ball in transition, set up Dirk, Terry and Howard, and make the open three when given the space. If the Mavs can find a way to slow down Parker, the Spurs simply don't have enough firepower.

Winner: Tony Parker

SG: Roger Mason Jr. vs. Antoine Wright

While Roger Mason's late game heroics have made SportsCenter all year long, what he does in the other 47 minutes can't be overlooked as well. Simply put, he's a smart player. I had the privilege of watching him go overlooked on the Wizards last year, and his play this year hasn't been surprising.

Mason's strength lies in the fact that he doesn't try to overstep his bounds. He doesn't take shots he has no business taking, which is more than can be said of a lot of NBA player. Unfortunately, most of those other players aren't on the Spurs.

Antoine Wright is at his best when he is acting as foil to Josh Howard. When Howard is hot in the first, Wright needs to be lockdown defensively. As Howard cools off, Wright needs to be driving to the cup, drawing fouls.

Wright shouldn't have many defensive problems with Mason himself, but he needs to be careful about shifting to Parker and leaving Mason open. The Spurs have won four rings on the drive-and-kick offense, and this is no time to let them take advantage.

I think Wright is much more capable of leaving his mark on the series than Mason.

Winner: Antoine Wright

SF: Michael Finley vs. Josh Howard

Ah, how fitting. The Mavs' small forward of the past against the small forward of the present (and hopefully, future). Josh Howard has been playing on a leg and a wrist that will go under the knife after the season (hopefully not until late June).

It's been said ad nauseum, but Josh Howard is the X-Factor. His return and subsequent stellar play have everything to do with the Mavericks hot finish.

Michael Finley's role is far more reduced, but no less important. He needs to hit jumpers. Plain and simple. When the defense collapses on Duncan or Parker, he's one of the few that will be taking that shot.

But no one on this postseason, save maybe Kobe, has more riding on this postseason than Howard. Short of an admission that he is a cokehead, Howard has hit the bottom, and has nowhere to go but up. Not that it's going to be easy, but it's possible.

Winner: Josh Howard

PF: Tim Duncan vs. Dirk Nowitzki

As far as star power goes, this is it for first-round matchups. Besides LeBron and Pierce, there isn't another matchup that features two sure hall-of-famers going at it.

At this point in their careers, Duncan is slowing down fast, and Dirk is still plugging along. Of course, Timmy can still relax on a mattress of championship rings (at least, that's how it feels) when he's done. Dirk still has work to do.

Dirk's offensive game is still unparalleled, his one-legged Euro fadeaway is near unguardable (though Carl Landry managed to block one last night), and he can still get to the rim. Duncan, on the other hand, will break you down with his arsenal of low-post moves, and he can hit the elbow jumper and rebound better than anyone.

During this series, Tony Parker can take up most of Duncan's slack on offense, but Dirk's 20-plus points are going to be hard to replace, even with their depth. Dirk needs to have a strong series, otherwise next year's Mavericks are going to look very different, maybe not in a good way.

Winner: Dirk Nowitzki

C: Matt Bonner vs. Erick Dampier

There's not many centers in the league that I would pick Dampier over, but Matt Bonner is one of them. While he is a good outside shooter, he doesn't have the low-post presence to compete with Dampier, and that speaks more to his shortcomings (read: he's a whitey with red hair) than to Dampier's strengths.

This hasn't killed the Spurs because of Duncan's low-post dominance, and his ability to play a passable center.

Dampier needs to show up for every other game as opposed to every four or five, and Dallas should be okay at the center. Dampier does tend to get in foul trouble, and if Parker is particularly aggressive it may come down to that, but that's where Dallas' bench comes in.

Winner: Erick Dampier

Bench:

Dallas has emerged as having a very deep bench. Jason Terry aside, J.J. Barea, Brandon Bass, James Singleton, Ryan Hollins and Gerald Green are capable of making their own marks on the game.

What to say about Jason Terry that hasn't been said already? Your Sixth Man of the Year, instant offense, instant energy and a cold-bloodedshooter to boot. With Terry in at crunch time, the Mavs are looking pretty good in close games.

Let's go back to Brandon Bass. His ferocity and athleticism should play a huge part for the Mavs during this series. Big, athletic guys have always given the Spurs trouble, and that's Bass to a T.

If he can lock down Duncan for a few minutes, throw some crowd-pleasing dunks, and make the occasional elbow or baseline jumper, he could be a huge part of the Mavs living to fight again in the second round.

The Spurs have George Hill (who might be ready in a few years), Ime Udoka (who isn't ready after a few years), and Fabricio Oberto (who lost his starting gig to a big, red-deaded 7-footer who can't rebound). 'Nuff said.

Winner: Dallas

Pick: Mavericks in 6

2009 Playoffs: (2) Nuggets vs. (7) Hornets

This should be a doozy. A transcendent point guard and an All-Star forward vs. an All-Star point guard and a transcendent forward. A former first round doorman vs. a team trying to prove last year wasn't a fluke.

One team pulled off a monster trade, one didn't and you could argue both came out better because of it.

For the last two seasons, the Western conference champion has started their run against the Denver Nuggets. The "I shoot then you shoot" of the Iverson-Anthony combo didn't do justice to either one's talents, and it got them nowhere. Now, the game's most selfish player has been replaced by one of the most unselfish, and Denver seems poised to advance for the first time in 'Melo's career. Denver also lost a defensive rock in the paint, but added one of the game's most mercurial talents in Chris Andersen.

New Orleans is another low-seeded team still coping with the disappointments of a season in which they were picked to be a sleeper, but Chris Paul has spent the season redefining his position.

PG: Chauncey Billups vs. Chris Paul

What Billups has done to this Denver team has gone largely unnoticed, yet people are not taking them seriously to come out of the West. Partly because of the Lakers, but partly because people are ready to see if Carmelo can join his other All-Star draftmates and finally advance. Billups figures to play a big part in this because of the nature of his game.

He can distribute, he can shoot, he can play defense, in roughly that order.

Unfortunately, the man on the other end of the ball could end up as the best to play his position. It's a case of "everything you can do I can do better," because Chris Paul does everything Billups can do to an amazing level.

Winner: Chauncey Billups

SG: Dahntay Jones vs. Rasual Butler

I would consider J.R. Smith the official shooting guard for the Nuggs, but according to their depth chart, Jones is number one. I don't know too much about him, but I know Rasual Butler can be a threat. He's not a game changer by any means, but wth Chris Paul giving him great looks, and with the attention given to Paul and West, he should have some room to operate.

If the Hornets are going to advance, Butler needs to make his mark on the series.

Winner: Rasual Butler

SF: Carmelo Anthony vs. Peja Stojakavic

Peja is without question on the downside of his career, and 'Melo is still finding exactly what his peak is. This is make or break time for 'Melo. Without Iverson, he needs to take control of the offense, and he needs to show the team that he is the superstar he's billed to be.

He's got the talents to do it, and he talks like he's motivated to do it, but if the Hornets advance, the blame will be on no one but Anthony, and the Nuggets might start preparing for a future without him if he can't deliver.

Peja has much lower expectations, and if he can hit the corner three, and stay out of his own way on defense, he should add to the Hornets nd not take anything away.

Winner: Carmelo Anthony

PF: Kenyon Martin vs. David West

Another intriguing matchup. Martin has shown flashes in his career, but is far from a given at his position. David West, on the other hand, is a bona fide All-Star, and a physical low-post presence combined with a sweet shoooting stroke.

The offense runs through him and Paul, so the two of them need to keep producing for the entire series. West is more than capable, but the question is, can he sustain it for an entire series?

He did well against the Mavericks last year, but during the Spurs series, he shot .565, .182, .526, .267, .640, .286, and .421 across the seven games, not exactly a model of consistency.

He's going to do better than that, especially with the Hornets situation at center.

Winner: David West

C: Nene vs. Tyson Chandler

This is where the series will be made for the Nuggets. You know what you're getting from 'Melo and Billups, but Nene needs to work hard on both ends of the floor.

With Chandler banged up, suddenly Chris Paul's favorite alley-oop target isn't there, and suddenly the paint isn't locked down on defense. A less-than-100% Chandler, combined with Melvin Ely and Hilton Armstrong, means that Nene needs to make a difference down low, which he is more than capable of, given his performance over the last month of the season.

In April, Nene is shooting better than 60 percent from the field , better than 70 percent from the free throw line, and averaging 7.4 rebounds and a block per game. If he can keep it up, the Nuggets should advance.

Winner: Nene

Bench:

New Orleans is frightfully thin, with the exception of James Posey. Antonio Daniels and Ely/Armstrong are far apart from their starter counterparts. Julian Wright is talented, but he won't be able to do much this series.

Denver on the other hand, has sharpshooting J.R. Smith coming off of the bench, not to mention a sparkplug defensive player in Chris Andersen, and Linas Kleiza provides a multi-faceted attack as well.

Denver's depth should give them the edge, because West and Paul can't play all 48 minutes.

Winner: Denver

Pick: Nuggets in five