Monday, February 2, 2009

Mavs @ Magic: Preview

Unfortunately, circumstances compsired against me, and I wasn't able to watch more than 20 mins of the last two Mavs games.

I call this unfortunate because they happened to win those games, both in convincing fashion.

You usually can't watch every game (I think I'm at about 36 games this season), but these two seem to be especially significant.

Two things have happened in the last week, which was also the least strenuous (game wise) for the Mavs in a number of months.
  • Rick Carlisle has given control of the offense to Jason Kidd.
  • Dirk's mentor is being allowed to travel with the team.
These two things represent a complete break from the Avery way of doing things, and so far it has paid off dividends.

Carlisle has acquiesced to personal needs of his two Hall-of-Famers, in a way that ostensibly reduces his own impact.

Jason Kidd was never able to run his own game with Avery. Now, Carlisle gave Kidd a CD with every play on it, as well as stats for what has been working.

For a player like Kidd, this shows him that his coach believes that he can do what is best for the team.

In Dirk's case, Avery would never let Herger Geschwinder travel with Dirk, fearing it would serve as a distraction for the rest of the team. Or was it because Gescheinder represented someone that Dirk would tend to listen to over his coach, even if Avery and Herger differed?

By allowing his mentor to be around Dirk, Carlisle is acknowledging that maybe Dirk needs to find inspiration somewhere else, and Carlisle is okay with that, which is a good sign.

Competitors like Dirk and Kidd are the type to recognize this, and will return the favor by playing at the peak of their abilities.

Which brings us to tonight's game.

The Magic are trying their hardest to convince the Sporting World At-Large that they are not giving the East to Boston/Cleveland without a fight, and tonight would be a step in that direction.

The Orlando Magic are like bookends, most of their substance on the far ends of the spectrum, nothing in the middle.

The Magic can shoot the lights out from three-point land, which is something that the Mavericks have struggled in defending in recent weeks.

They also have the future of the NBA center in Dwight Howard, who doesn't bring perfection to the table, but is without question, the most complete frontcourt force in the league at both ends of the floor.

The Magic's weekness lies in their forwards. Rashard Lewis, despite the money he earns, only plays with effort when he feels like it. While he can always score, his rebounding and defense come and go with the tides, and that's something you can't do against Dirk.

If Antoine Wright is able to play hard defense against Turkoglu, this should take a decent amount of firepower away from the Magic.

Jameer Nelson is a good scorer, and I fully expect him to break the 20-point mark and shoot more than 50% from the field, but I don't think he can win you the game.

The real battle will be down low. The Mavericks need to earn every one of the 12 fouls that Hollins and Dampier are allotted, since that is how you neutralize Howard.

I think the game will come down to who's jump shot is falling the most. If the Mavericks were smart, they would push it into the paint, and get to the line.

If Lewis and especially Howard get into foul trouble, the Mavericks should be able to take advantage. If the game comes down to whose jump shot is falling (which is what the Magic are no doubt hoping), then the Mavs might be in trouble.

The Mavericks have a lot more to gain by getting a win in Orlando, and let's hope they play like it.