2009 Playoffs: (3) Spurs vs. (6) Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks have closed the season with a flourish, or so I'm told, I don't follow them all that closely. The Spurs have limped to the finish, which stands in stark contrast to how they usually finish the season, playing their best basketball. Both of these teams have will have a chance to extend their window by at least a week, a the expense of slamming the other's shut.

For the last few years, the hierarchy in the West has always been Spurs, Mavs, Suns. The Suns are stuck in third place as far as that goes, and now the Mavs have a chance to climb to the top, possibly for the last time.

Ginobili has always been a Mavs killer, and with his absence and Duncan's knees, the Spurs are as ripe for the plucking as they have always been.

PG: Tony Parker vs. Jason Kidd

Old-school vs. new school. For two people who play the same position, the two couldn't have more opposite games. With Manu out, Parker must be the first or second option on offense, while Kidd is often fourth or fifth.

We all know that Parker will probably have a field day on Kidd on the offensive end. His speed can't be matched by Kidd, and any help the Mavs will give Kidd will only open the window for another shooter to bomb the Mavs from long range.

Kidd needs to do exactly what he has been doing. Push the ball in transition, set up Dirk, Terry and Howard, and make the open three when given the space. If the Mavs can find a way to slow down Parker, the Spurs simply don't have enough firepower.

Winner: Tony Parker

SG: Roger Mason Jr. vs. Antoine Wright

While Roger Mason's late game heroics have made SportsCenter all year long, what he does in the other 47 minutes can't be overlooked as well. Simply put, he's a smart player. I had the privilege of watching him go overlooked on the Wizards last year, and his play this year hasn't been surprising.

Mason's strength lies in the fact that he doesn't try to overstep his bounds. He doesn't take shots he has no business taking, which is more than can be said of a lot of NBA player. Unfortunately, most of those other players aren't on the Spurs.

Antoine Wright is at his best when he is acting as foil to Josh Howard. When Howard is hot in the first, Wright needs to be lockdown defensively. As Howard cools off, Wright needs to be driving to the cup, drawing fouls.

Wright shouldn't have many defensive problems with Mason himself, but he needs to be careful about shifting to Parker and leaving Mason open. The Spurs have won four rings on the drive-and-kick offense, and this is no time to let them take advantage.

I think Wright is much more capable of leaving his mark on the series than Mason.

Winner: Antoine Wright

SF: Michael Finley vs. Josh Howard

Ah, how fitting. The Mavs' small forward of the past against the small forward of the present (and hopefully, future). Josh Howard has been playing on a leg and a wrist that will go under the knife after the season (hopefully not until late June).

It's been said ad nauseum, but Josh Howard is the X-Factor. His return and subsequent stellar play have everything to do with the Mavericks hot finish.

Michael Finley's role is far more reduced, but no less important. He needs to hit jumpers. Plain and simple. When the defense collapses on Duncan or Parker, he's one of the few that will be taking that shot.

But no one on this postseason, save maybe Kobe, has more riding on this postseason than Howard. Short of an admission that he is a cokehead, Howard has hit the bottom, and has nowhere to go but up. Not that it's going to be easy, but it's possible.

Winner: Josh Howard

PF: Tim Duncan vs. Dirk Nowitzki

As far as star power goes, this is it for first-round matchups. Besides LeBron and Pierce, there isn't another matchup that features two sure hall-of-famers going at it.

At this point in their careers, Duncan is slowing down fast, and Dirk is still plugging along. Of course, Timmy can still relax on a mattress of championship rings (at least, that's how it feels) when he's done. Dirk still has work to do.

Dirk's offensive game is still unparalleled, his one-legged Euro fadeaway is near unguardable (though Carl Landry managed to block one last night), and he can still get to the rim. Duncan, on the other hand, will break you down with his arsenal of low-post moves, and he can hit the elbow jumper and rebound better than anyone.

During this series, Tony Parker can take up most of Duncan's slack on offense, but Dirk's 20-plus points are going to be hard to replace, even with their depth. Dirk needs to have a strong series, otherwise next year's Mavericks are going to look very different, maybe not in a good way.

Winner: Dirk Nowitzki

C: Matt Bonner vs. Erick Dampier

There's not many centers in the league that I would pick Dampier over, but Matt Bonner is one of them. While he is a good outside shooter, he doesn't have the low-post presence to compete with Dampier, and that speaks more to his shortcomings (read: he's a whitey with red hair) than to Dampier's strengths.

This hasn't killed the Spurs because of Duncan's low-post dominance, and his ability to play a passable center.

Dampier needs to show up for every other game as opposed to every four or five, and Dallas should be okay at the center. Dampier does tend to get in foul trouble, and if Parker is particularly aggressive it may come down to that, but that's where Dallas' bench comes in.

Winner: Erick Dampier

Bench:

Dallas has emerged as having a very deep bench. Jason Terry aside, J.J. Barea, Brandon Bass, James Singleton, Ryan Hollins and Gerald Green are capable of making their own marks on the game.

What to say about Jason Terry that hasn't been said already? Your Sixth Man of the Year, instant offense, instant energy and a cold-bloodedshooter to boot. With Terry in at crunch time, the Mavs are looking pretty good in close games.

Let's go back to Brandon Bass. His ferocity and athleticism should play a huge part for the Mavs during this series. Big, athletic guys have always given the Spurs trouble, and that's Bass to a T.

If he can lock down Duncan for a few minutes, throw some crowd-pleasing dunks, and make the occasional elbow or baseline jumper, he could be a huge part of the Mavs living to fight again in the second round.

The Spurs have George Hill (who might be ready in a few years), Ime Udoka (who isn't ready after a few years), and Fabricio Oberto (who lost his starting gig to a big, red-deaded 7-footer who can't rebound). 'Nuff said.

Winner: Dallas

Pick: Mavericks in 6

Mavs @ Magic: Preview

Unfortunately, circumstances compsired against me, and I wasn't able to watch more than 20 mins of the last two Mavs games.

I call this unfortunate because they happened to win those games, both in convincing fashion.

You usually can't watch every game (I think I'm at about 36 games this season), but these two seem to be especially significant.

Two things have happened in the last week, which was also the least strenuous (game wise) for the Mavs in a number of months.

• Rick Carlisle has given control of the offense to Jason Kidd.
• Dirk's mentor is being allowed to travel with the team.

These two things represent a complete break from the Avery way of doing things, and so far it has paid off dividends.

Carlisle has acquiesced to personal needs of his two Hall-of-Famers, in a way that ostensibly reduces his own impact.

Jason Kidd was never able to run his own game with Avery. Now, Carlisle gave Kidd a CD with every play on it, as well as stats for what has been working.

For a player like Kidd, this shows him that his coach believes that he can do what is best for the team.

In Dirk's case, Avery would never let Herger Geschwinder travel with Dirk, fearing it would serve as a distraction for the rest of the team. Or was it because Gescheinder represented someone that Dirk would tend to listen to over his coach, even if Avery and Herger differed?

By allowing his mentor to be around Dirk, Carlisle is acknowledging that maybe Dirk needs to find inspiration somewhere else, and Carlisle is okay with that, which is a good sign.

Competitors like Dirk and Kidd are the type to recognize this, and will return the favor by playing at the peak of their abilities.

Which brings us to tonight's game.

The Magic are trying their hardest to convince the Sporting World At-Large that they are not giving the East to Boston/Cleveland without a fight, and tonight would be a step in that direction.

The Orlando Magic are like bookends, most of their substance on the far ends of the spectrum, nothing in the middle.

The Magic can shoot the lights out from three-point land, which is something that the Mavericks have struggled in defending in recent weeks.

They also have the future of the NBA center in Dwight Howard, who doesn't bring perfection to the table, but is without question, the most complete frontcourt force in the league at both ends of the floor.

The Magic's weekness lies in their forwards. Rashard Lewis, despite the money he earns, only plays with effort when he feels like it. While he can always score, his rebounding and defense come and go with the tides, and that's something you can't do against Dirk.

If Antoine Wright is able to play hard defense against Turkoglu, this should take a decent amount of firepower away from the Magic.

Jameer Nelson is a good scorer, and I fully expect him to break the 20-point mark and shoot more than 50% from the field, but I don't think he can win you the game.

The real battle will be down low. The Mavericks need to earn every one of the 12 fouls that Hollins and Dampier are allotted, since that is how you neutralize Howard.

I think the game will come down to who's jump shot is falling the most. If the Mavericks were smart, they would push it into the paint, and get to the line.

If Lewis and especially Howard get into foul trouble, the Mavericks should be able to take advantage. If the game comes down to whose jump shot is falling (which is what the Magic are no doubt hoping), then the Mavs might be in trouble.

The Mavericks have a lot more to gain by getting a win in Orlando, and let's hope they play like it.