2009 Playoffs: (3) Spurs vs. (6) Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks have closed the season with a flourish, or so I'm told, I don't follow them all that closely. The Spurs have limped to the finish, which stands in stark contrast to how they usually finish the season, playing their best basketball. Both of these teams have will have a chance to extend their window by at least a week, a the expense of slamming the other's shut.

For the last few years, the hierarchy in the West has always been Spurs, Mavs, Suns. The Suns are stuck in third place as far as that goes, and now the Mavs have a chance to climb to the top, possibly for the last time.

Ginobili has always been a Mavs killer, and with his absence and Duncan's knees, the Spurs are as ripe for the plucking as they have always been.

PG: Tony Parker vs. Jason Kidd

Old-school vs. new school. For two people who play the same position, the two couldn't have more opposite games. With Manu out, Parker must be the first or second option on offense, while Kidd is often fourth or fifth.

We all know that Parker will probably have a field day on Kidd on the offensive end. His speed can't be matched by Kidd, and any help the Mavs will give Kidd will only open the window for another shooter to bomb the Mavs from long range.

Kidd needs to do exactly what he has been doing. Push the ball in transition, set up Dirk, Terry and Howard, and make the open three when given the space. If the Mavs can find a way to slow down Parker, the Spurs simply don't have enough firepower.

Winner: Tony Parker

SG: Roger Mason Jr. vs. Antoine Wright

While Roger Mason's late game heroics have made SportsCenter all year long, what he does in the other 47 minutes can't be overlooked as well. Simply put, he's a smart player. I had the privilege of watching him go overlooked on the Wizards last year, and his play this year hasn't been surprising.

Mason's strength lies in the fact that he doesn't try to overstep his bounds. He doesn't take shots he has no business taking, which is more than can be said of a lot of NBA player. Unfortunately, most of those other players aren't on the Spurs.

Antoine Wright is at his best when he is acting as foil to Josh Howard. When Howard is hot in the first, Wright needs to be lockdown defensively. As Howard cools off, Wright needs to be driving to the cup, drawing fouls.

Wright shouldn't have many defensive problems with Mason himself, but he needs to be careful about shifting to Parker and leaving Mason open. The Spurs have won four rings on the drive-and-kick offense, and this is no time to let them take advantage.

I think Wright is much more capable of leaving his mark on the series than Mason.

Winner: Antoine Wright

SF: Michael Finley vs. Josh Howard

Ah, how fitting. The Mavs' small forward of the past against the small forward of the present (and hopefully, future). Josh Howard has been playing on a leg and a wrist that will go under the knife after the season (hopefully not until late June).

It's been said ad nauseum, but Josh Howard is the X-Factor. His return and subsequent stellar play have everything to do with the Mavericks hot finish.

Michael Finley's role is far more reduced, but no less important. He needs to hit jumpers. Plain and simple. When the defense collapses on Duncan or Parker, he's one of the few that will be taking that shot.

But no one on this postseason, save maybe Kobe, has more riding on this postseason than Howard. Short of an admission that he is a cokehead, Howard has hit the bottom, and has nowhere to go but up. Not that it's going to be easy, but it's possible.

Winner: Josh Howard

PF: Tim Duncan vs. Dirk Nowitzki

As far as star power goes, this is it for first-round matchups. Besides LeBron and Pierce, there isn't another matchup that features two sure hall-of-famers going at it.

At this point in their careers, Duncan is slowing down fast, and Dirk is still plugging along. Of course, Timmy can still relax on a mattress of championship rings (at least, that's how it feels) when he's done. Dirk still has work to do.

Dirk's offensive game is still unparalleled, his one-legged Euro fadeaway is near unguardable (though Carl Landry managed to block one last night), and he can still get to the rim. Duncan, on the other hand, will break you down with his arsenal of low-post moves, and he can hit the elbow jumper and rebound better than anyone.

During this series, Tony Parker can take up most of Duncan's slack on offense, but Dirk's 20-plus points are going to be hard to replace, even with their depth. Dirk needs to have a strong series, otherwise next year's Mavericks are going to look very different, maybe not in a good way.

Winner: Dirk Nowitzki

C: Matt Bonner vs. Erick Dampier

There's not many centers in the league that I would pick Dampier over, but Matt Bonner is one of them. While he is a good outside shooter, he doesn't have the low-post presence to compete with Dampier, and that speaks more to his shortcomings (read: he's a whitey with red hair) than to Dampier's strengths.

This hasn't killed the Spurs because of Duncan's low-post dominance, and his ability to play a passable center.

Dampier needs to show up for every other game as opposed to every four or five, and Dallas should be okay at the center. Dampier does tend to get in foul trouble, and if Parker is particularly aggressive it may come down to that, but that's where Dallas' bench comes in.

Winner: Erick Dampier

Bench:

Dallas has emerged as having a very deep bench. Jason Terry aside, J.J. Barea, Brandon Bass, James Singleton, Ryan Hollins and Gerald Green are capable of making their own marks on the game.

What to say about Jason Terry that hasn't been said already? Your Sixth Man of the Year, instant offense, instant energy and a cold-bloodedshooter to boot. With Terry in at crunch time, the Mavs are looking pretty good in close games.

Let's go back to Brandon Bass. His ferocity and athleticism should play a huge part for the Mavs during this series. Big, athletic guys have always given the Spurs trouble, and that's Bass to a T.

If he can lock down Duncan for a few minutes, throw some crowd-pleasing dunks, and make the occasional elbow or baseline jumper, he could be a huge part of the Mavs living to fight again in the second round.

The Spurs have George Hill (who might be ready in a few years), Ime Udoka (who isn't ready after a few years), and Fabricio Oberto (who lost his starting gig to a big, red-deaded 7-footer who can't rebound). 'Nuff said.

Winner: Dallas

Pick: Mavericks in 6

You heard it here first...

A wise man once wrote:

Here's what I would like to see from Josh Howard on his return:

Play exactly like J.J. Barea has been playing.

It's not as ludicrous as it sounds. Barea has been incredibly aggressive, only resorting to the jump shot when he has tons of space around him.

There's no way Barea is as athletic as Howard, so there's no reason he can't do the same things. Howard has eight inches on Barea, so he shouldn't have as much trouble scoring in the paint.

Howard also has a better jumper, though Barea might be better with the three-ball.

If Josh Howard can play like Barea, the Mavs will be a real force.

Brilliant stuff when you think about it.

And apparently I'm not the only one that thinks so.

According to the Dallas Morning News' MavsBlog:

Josh Howard explained to reporters that he didn't think he'd have a problem fitting in with a team that went 9-2 while he sat out with a sprained ankle. His reasoning: Recent star J.J. Barea and him "bring the same thing to the table."

Howard was referring to their ability to drive to the basket. Never mind the fact that he's eight inches taller than Barea and plays a different position.

Sounds like they got their stuff together over there at the MavsBlog.

Oh, and also here at Dirk is my Homeboy.

Because, you know, I wrote my post on Wednesday, Dec. 10, but the Mavs Blog didn't come out with it Tuesday, Dec. 16.

Just saying...

Putting Jo-Ho back in the lineup

It's funny how things work. If you had told me that Josh Howard would have one the the best starts of his career, but the Mavs would start 4-7, then he would be hurt while the Mavs go 7-2 in his absence I would have called you crazy.

But that's the situation we find ourselves in.

Now, after a week or so of toying with the idea of Howard playing the Mavericks have come out and said that Jo-Ho will be out indefinitely.

Given the record Dallas has compiled in his absence, I'm not too broken up about that. While I'm a huge Howard fan, I'd rather he get all the way healthy, especially with the Mavs winning without him.

We've all seen (Arenas and Wade) what can happen if an athletic player rushes back too quick.

But unlike Agent Zero, the Mavs will surely benefit from getting their most athletic player back on the floor.

But how exactly? After all, the Mavs have had pretty good success with their three-PG lineup, and that leaves Howard as the odd man out.

So how will Josh Howard fit into the way the Mavs are playing?

First of all, his defense will be crucial. We all saw last night how Kidd/Barea/Terry were decimated by Tony Parker last night, even after he started slow.

In the playoffs, you're going to have Parker, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, an underrated Rafer Alston, as well as people like Fisher and Roy.

Howard should be able to guard those guys. Luckily, there aren't many teams with both a quick, penetrating PG and a long, athletic two-guard.

Kobe has Fisher, who is good, but isn't known for his penetration. The closest thing the Mavs should see is the Alston/McGrady combo, and that depends on McGrady's health.

So if Howard gets put on the other teams best athlete, that leaves Terry or even Barea to go after the person Howard is giving up. I love the way Kidd plays, and I think he plays better defense than ge gets credit for, but I just don't trust him.

So then what happens to the three-PG lineup when Howard returns?

You can't lose Kidd. His ball movement and ability to hit the open shot can't be lost.

It's tough to lose Barea. His heart, defense, speed and ability to penetrate are something that the Mavs have lacked for a while.

It's also tough to lose Terry. While he is a streaky shooter, he is great about hitting the open looks (which he is getting more and more of, thanks to the Mavs' vastly improved ball movement), and he's no slouch on the defensive end.

But you can't sacrifice any more size by taking Bass or Dirk out of there, so gun to my head, I think you have to drop Barea.

I love the way Barea has been playing as of late, but he tends to push things too far, often getting facialed by a forward when he tries to go over him. In a close game against a good team, you can't give away possessions like that.

But the problem is this: The lineup of Kidd, Terry, Howard, Dirk and Bass is nothing new, and it hasn't done all that much.

But it really hasn't been around too much with Carlisle, and not after they've had some time to get familiar with his offense.

The way Dallas is moving the ball now, Howard should be able to get looks. The Spurs game highlighted the ability to get out of the double team, and with Howard in there, the Mavs are way too dangerous to double team.

Here's what I would like to see from Josh Howard on his return:

Play exactly like J.J. Barea has been playing.

It's not as ludicrous as it sounds. Barea has been incredibly aggressive, only resorting to the jump shot when he has tons of space around him.

There's no way Barea is as athletic as Howard, so there's no reason he can't do the same things. Howard has eight inches on Barea, so he shouldn't have as much trouble scoring in the paint.

Howard also has a better jumper, though Barea might be better with the three-ball.

If Josh Howard can play like Barea, the Mavs will be a real force.

In crunch time, you can put out Dirk, Terry, Kidd, Howard and Bass/Damp (depending on the size of the opponents).

That gives you four legit shooters (five if Bass is there), plus an inside presence. You've got speed and passing with Terry and Kidd.

Most importantly, you've got that combo that has helped the Spurs so much: people who can penetrate and kick it out to shooters on the perimeter.

The Spurs bread and butter has been setting up Parker in the halfcourt offense, then when he drives, he can score, give it to a low post threat in Duncan, or kick it out to a perimeter threat like Mason, Ginobili, Bowen, Finley or Bonner.

Now the Mavs have a setup like that. With Barea in at the PG, and Howard at the three, you have two legit guys who can get into the paint. With Damp/Diop/Bass as your low post threat, and Dirk, Terry, George (whose outside shooting is picking up), or Wright in there, those are legit threats.

Sure, Damp/Diop/Bass is no Tim Duncan. Sure, Devin Harris can penetrate better. And you can argue that Ginobili, Bowen and Finley are more lights out than Terry, Dirk and Devean George.

But if the looks are there, good shooters will get them. That's why Jason Terry has had such a resurgence as of late. Due to the Mavs' good ball movements, he has gotten great looks, and he's too good of a shooter not to capitalize on those.

I just hope that Mavs fans aren't using the latest streak as a "We can win with out Howard" platform.

While the Mavs have looked good, they have played some pretty dreadful teams (and barely escaped, mind you), but there's no reason that inserting someone as athletic and talented as Josh Howard in the mix won't push them to another level.

Talkin' Trades

While Dallas hasn't joined in the Nuggets/Warriors/Clippers/76ers level of making big offseason moves, things are starting to heat up.

Josh Howard seems to be the best trade chip Dallas has to offer right now. His athleticism, as well as his good jumper and penetration ability seems to make for a good fit with a number of teams.

His downside is: his inconsistency could serve to make him a project. At 27, Jo-Ho is a little too old to be taught how to play again.

Ron Artest seems to have a spotlight on him, but the Mavs and Kings are having difficulty deciding what he's worth.

The Mavs offered Brandon Bass and the Stack-attack for Artest. While I hate to lose someone like Bass, I would definitely be on board with this trade.

Artest gives the Mavs some toughness, both emotionally and defensively, which would be a good thing. The Mavs have been missing a lock-down defender who can take the Ginobilis, McGradys, Kobes and others.

Plus he can score, which was starting to be a problem in the last days of Avery's administration. There were times that the halfcourt offense just looked plain uncomfortable.

With Jason Kidd on your team, a stagnant offense shouldn't be an issue.

As much as I like Bass, he plays Dirk's position, and if you move him to the 5, he's too small, and he also plays Jo-Ho's position, so he can't go to the three. And he's almost too good to be Dirk's backup, so I would be willing to trade him for a better fit like Artest.

Then Sacramento countered with a Josh Howard for Ron Artest trade. That's over the line though. As many problems as Josh Howard has had, I don't see any reason that he can't return to All-Star form this year. Especially when he's not running only isos.

I don't think that Artest is worth losing Jo-Ho. With the problems the Mavs have had of late, chemistry is the last thing that needs to be messed with.

So the question becomes, who would you trade Josh Howard for, if at all?

The Dallas Morning News' MavsBlog talks about a Josh-for-Josh trade with the Hawks' Josh Smith.

An intriguing possibility. J-Smoove is younger, an athletic freak, and apparently doesn't want to stay a hawk.

But, with the signing of Gerald Green, we've already got a great athlete. Though it would be interesting to see a lineup of Diop/Dampier, Dirk, Josh Smith, Gerald Green and Jason Kidd.

That lineup has two monster athletes who can penetrate at the 2 and 3, a lights-out shooter who has been known to break an ankle or two at the 4, and the game's best passer at the point.

Given that Green and Smith are both only 22, suddenly a Dallas team that got a lot older with the Kidd trade becomes younger again.

Add that to the cap space created by Kidd's expiring deal next year, and that could put the Mavs in position to go higher as teams like the Spurs inevitably slow down.

But what kind of commitment can Smith offer defensively? The problem with phenomenal athletes like Green and Smith is that they can often seem content with their gifts, and not commit to playing the hard-nosed D that wins titles.

But Smith averages about 3 blocks per game, as well as a steal and a half. If Carlisle can beat some defense into Gerald Green, and with the addition of Diop, all of a sudden the Mavs are no slouches on interior defense.

The only weakness they would have is the same one that plagued them in the Hornets series. A young, quick point guard can beat J-Kidd off the dribble, which can cause the defense to compensate leading to open looks for other players.

Teams like the Hornets, Spurs, Suns, Celtics and now the Clippers can be dangerous if you allow this to happen.

Bottom line: would I trade Jo-Ho for J-Smoove?

Yes.