Putting Jo-Ho back in the lineup

It's funny how things work. If you had told me that Josh Howard would have one the the best starts of his career, but the Mavs would start 4-7, then he would be hurt while the Mavs go 7-2 in his absence I would have called you crazy.

But that's the situation we find ourselves in.

Now, after a week or so of toying with the idea of Howard playing the Mavericks have come out and said that Jo-Ho will be out indefinitely.

Given the record Dallas has compiled in his absence, I'm not too broken up about that. While I'm a huge Howard fan, I'd rather he get all the way healthy, especially with the Mavs winning without him.

We've all seen (Arenas and Wade) what can happen if an athletic player rushes back too quick.

But unlike Agent Zero, the Mavs will surely benefit from getting their most athletic player back on the floor.

But how exactly? After all, the Mavs have had pretty good success with their three-PG lineup, and that leaves Howard as the odd man out.

So how will Josh Howard fit into the way the Mavs are playing?

First of all, his defense will be crucial. We all saw last night how Kidd/Barea/Terry were decimated by Tony Parker last night, even after he started slow.

In the playoffs, you're going to have Parker, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, an underrated Rafer Alston, as well as people like Fisher and Roy.

Howard should be able to guard those guys. Luckily, there aren't many teams with both a quick, penetrating PG and a long, athletic two-guard.

Kobe has Fisher, who is good, but isn't known for his penetration. The closest thing the Mavs should see is the Alston/McGrady combo, and that depends on McGrady's health.

So if Howard gets put on the other teams best athlete, that leaves Terry or even Barea to go after the person Howard is giving up. I love the way Kidd plays, and I think he plays better defense than ge gets credit for, but I just don't trust him.

So then what happens to the three-PG lineup when Howard returns?

You can't lose Kidd. His ball movement and ability to hit the open shot can't be lost.

It's tough to lose Barea. His heart, defense, speed and ability to penetrate are something that the Mavs have lacked for a while.

It's also tough to lose Terry. While he is a streaky shooter, he is great about hitting the open looks (which he is getting more and more of, thanks to the Mavs' vastly improved ball movement), and he's no slouch on the defensive end.

But you can't sacrifice any more size by taking Bass or Dirk out of there, so gun to my head, I think you have to drop Barea.

I love the way Barea has been playing as of late, but he tends to push things too far, often getting facialed by a forward when he tries to go over him. In a close game against a good team, you can't give away possessions like that.

But the problem is this: The lineup of Kidd, Terry, Howard, Dirk and Bass is nothing new, and it hasn't done all that much.

But it really hasn't been around too much with Carlisle, and not after they've had some time to get familiar with his offense.

The way Dallas is moving the ball now, Howard should be able to get looks. The Spurs game highlighted the ability to get out of the double team, and with Howard in there, the Mavs are way too dangerous to double team.

Here's what I would like to see from Josh Howard on his return:

Play exactly like J.J. Barea has been playing.

It's not as ludicrous as it sounds. Barea has been incredibly aggressive, only resorting to the jump shot when he has tons of space around him.

There's no way Barea is as athletic as Howard, so there's no reason he can't do the same things. Howard has eight inches on Barea, so he shouldn't have as much trouble scoring in the paint.

Howard also has a better jumper, though Barea might be better with the three-ball.

If Josh Howard can play like Barea, the Mavs will be a real force.

In crunch time, you can put out Dirk, Terry, Kidd, Howard and Bass/Damp (depending on the size of the opponents).

That gives you four legit shooters (five if Bass is there), plus an inside presence. You've got speed and passing with Terry and Kidd.

Most importantly, you've got that combo that has helped the Spurs so much: people who can penetrate and kick it out to shooters on the perimeter.

The Spurs bread and butter has been setting up Parker in the halfcourt offense, then when he drives, he can score, give it to a low post threat in Duncan, or kick it out to a perimeter threat like Mason, Ginobili, Bowen, Finley or Bonner.

Now the Mavs have a setup like that. With Barea in at the PG, and Howard at the three, you have two legit guys who can get into the paint. With Damp/Diop/Bass as your low post threat, and Dirk, Terry, George (whose outside shooting is picking up), or Wright in there, those are legit threats.

Sure, Damp/Diop/Bass is no Tim Duncan. Sure, Devin Harris can penetrate better. And you can argue that Ginobili, Bowen and Finley are more lights out than Terry, Dirk and Devean George.

But if the looks are there, good shooters will get them. That's why Jason Terry has had such a resurgence as of late. Due to the Mavs' good ball movements, he has gotten great looks, and he's too good of a shooter not to capitalize on those.

I just hope that Mavs fans aren't using the latest streak as a "We can win with out Howard" platform.

While the Mavs have looked good, they have played some pretty dreadful teams (and barely escaped, mind you), but there's no reason that inserting someone as athletic and talented as Josh Howard in the mix won't push them to another level.

Test.....passed?

Well, they kept the three PG lineup out there for the end of the Hawks game. And they barely escaped with the win.

Let's break it down:

J.J. Barea enters the game with Dallas up by 11, 77-88, and 3:55 to go.

Joe Johnson hits two free throws, then Barea is blocked by Pachulia, leading to a Joe Johnson three.

Dallas up by six: 88-82.

Joe Johnson continues to exploit the size mismatch, by hitting another jumper, only Terry's pair of buckets keep Dallas up by ten.

Two turnovers (by Dirk and J.J.) lead to consecutive threes by Bibby and
Johnson. The size mismatch is hurting them. Badly.

Bibby scores again on a runner, bringing the game to two, Dallas up 94-92, all in the span on 36 seconds.

Two steals and two key outlet passes from Kidd to Bass are able to stem the tide, but this should show Carlisle that he needs to find another crunch time lineup against teams like that.

Of all the teams with big, athletic two-guards (Lakers, Bobcats, Hawks, Rockets, Celtics, Cavs, and the Blazers) the Hawks are the second worst behind the Bobcats.

The Mavs only won by two (five if you take away the last minute, uncontested three from Joe Johnson)

The other five are playoff teams, three of which are in the Western Conference.

How do you think a Kidd, JJ, Terry, Dirk and Bass lineup is going to fare against Alston, T-Mac, Artest, Scola and Yao?

Or against Fisher, Kobe, Odom, Gasol and Bynum?

I don't like those odds.

So the Mavs need to get themselves a different crunch time lineup. Sure, it will be different when Howard and Wright are back, but how does the lineup shake out then?

I would guess: Kidd, Terry, Howard, Dirk and Bass, but that presents the same size problems.

If you put Wright in at the two, then you lose Terry's shooting, speed and energy.

At this point neither Mavs center can be counted on to be in good shape foul-wise at the end of the game. Not against a team that drives to the hoop.

I don't have too many concerns about rebounding, Bass makes up in presence what he lacks in size, but with a 7-foot center in there, what's to stop him from backing to the basket and knocking down five-footers all night?

I'm not saying the new lineup (which needs a nickname by the way) doesn't have a place, I think it's a good way to either end the third quarter or start a fourth quarter with some energy.

But they'll need some size if they're to go deep into the playoffs. Either that or be ahead by more than 15 in the closing minutes.

Hawks-Mavs: A litmus test

In the previous post, I discussed how the lineup of Kidd, JJ, Terry, Dirk and Bass was working, despite all the size problems it presented.

Tonight should be an interesting case. The Atlanta Hawks are chock full of athletic swingmen, the kind that should easily be able to beat someone like JJ if he's playing the two.

So far (halfway through the 3rd quarter) the ultra-small lineup hasn't come out, but Kidd-JJ and Terry-JJ have been a guard tandem.

One thing that has helped the Mavs in this respect is giving Devean George the start. While he is technically playing the three, he's helping guard people like Joe Johnson and Josh Smith.

The Hawks represent a team that the Mavericks need to be more like, despite the obvious differences in their records over the past few seasons.

They are incredibly athletic and good jump shooters, and they are very good at getting to the line at will. They've caused some foul trouble for both Dirk and George.

J.J. Barea (a recent addition to my fantasy squad, I might add) has provided another bonfire (as opposed to a spark) off of the bench, guiding Dallas to a 15-point lead by scoring 14 in the 3rd quarter.

When Jo-Ho and Wright get back, this could be a very dangerous team.

How DO they do it?

The Mavericks have left me speechless. They are putting a crunch-time lineup out there of: Kidd, Barea, Terry, Bass and Dirk. What's more confusing is that it's working.

It worked (kind of) against the Lakers, it pulled them out of a hole against the Clips, and it worked against the Suns last night, and I don't get it.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the reason Terry wasn't a permanent fixture at the two is because of his lack of size. But somehow putting in a 5'10" guy at the 2, and moving Terry to the three is working.

Now, it won't work against a big two like Tracy McGrady or Kobe, but it will work against most teams.

J.J. Barea is blowing my mind. I picked him up in fantasy last week, and hopefully he will give the Mavs a legit #2 point guard.

The key to winning eight of nine for the Mavs has been: the times without Kidd haven't been a black hole.

Barea looks like he has been learning from both Kidd and Devin Harris, passing well and getting to the basket with ease.

When Howard comes back, it will be interesting to see how the Mavs play it, but all of a sudden the Dallas bench is looking pretty deep, as evidenced when they outscored the vaunted Lakers bench 56-25.

With a presumed starting lineup of (when everyone is healthy):
Kidd
Wright
Howard
Dirk
Dampier

Here is what the bench is:

• Jason Terry - Outscored the Lakers bench by himself, he is coming on strong and getting good looks to the hoop. Already a great character guy, he's making his minutes count for the first time in a year or so.
  
• J.J. Barea - The Wild Card. I'm doubtful that he will be as good as he has been for the rest of the season, but he does provide a spark, he's shooting well, getting to the hoop, playing good defense, and performing all around.
  
• Gerald Green - While his minutes have been cut into, he is still a factor off the bench, and he can provide energy in the late third-quarter, when the stars are resting up for crunch time. I'd still like to see him get more minutes (hopefully in blowouts) where he can get the feel of the Mavs ball movement and defensive schemes, as well as find a niche in the offense.
  
• James Singleton - He has done pretty well on the boards in his limited time, and even hits a jumper of two.
• Devean George - Shooting very well off the bench, and provides the defense that Barea and Terry lack on a big SG.
  
• Diop - Slowly getting back to form, and he's actually getting a little aggressive on the offensive glass. I'd like to see him get fed inside more often, since he's got better hands than Damp.
  

That's not a bad bench there, and if they can shore up the interior defense with someone like Kaman, that could go a long way.

Matchup Hell

Two posts ago, I brought up a lineup that in my opinion, could change the way teams plan for the Mavs.

You've heard of Small Ball, what about Big Ball? Given the Mavs shortcomings on the boards as of late, this could help them shake things up.

Here's the lineup:

PG - Jason Terry
SG - Josh Howard
SF - Dirk Nowitzki
PF - Brandon Bass
C - Dampier/Diop

While that might seem incredibly short-sighted, given the propensity for young teams to go small, imagine the possibilites.

You've got four dead-eye jump shooters and a traditional center. That's can translate into a halfcourt offense that could be unstoppable, especially when you add Jo-Ho and Bass's ability to muscle on the inside.

You've also got two seven footers, or close to it. If that can't get you a boards advantage, even for the few minutes that you've got it out there, than nothing will.

Now, think about the matchups. Dirk against a 3? Think about that. A seven footer than can kill you from the outside, mid-range, or penetrate against a smaller, but quicker guard. He could force his way to the line 15-20 times a game like that.

Now think of Bass against a PF. He seems to match up well with other quick PFs such as Gasol or Scola. He's much tougher than Gasol, and a Bass/Scola matchup could be real nasty.

Dare I say, nasty as they want to be?

Glorious hip-hop references aside, this is a lineup that can get things done.

I know what you are thinking, this lineup would get shredded by any run-and-gun team. Right?

Wrong. Where does the run-and-gun start? From a defensive rebound or steal. Steals happen, and unless J.J. Barea is in the game, it's usually a product of good defense, which is going to happen, especially if you want to go deep into the playoffs.

But the defensive rebounds into fast breaks? How are you going to pull down boards with two seven footers? With two guys that big, you can keep them on the inside for shots, and they're then in prime position to shine the glass.

Plus, Josh Howard and Bass are great rebounders. Terry has been known to get some rebounds as well, especially if he's fighting for the long ones near the elbow.

The last two lineups I've posted, small ball and big ball, all focus on one thing: playing Dirk out of position. But if you know anything about Dirk's game, you know he can play both the 3 and the 5, so these lineups therefore make sense.

Think about it. And please, somebody send this blog to Rick Carlisle.

Small Ball lineup

In the earlier post, I recommended a small-ball lineup that could create matchup hell for a lot of teams. In case you forgot:

PG- Kidd
SG- Terry
SF- Howard
PF- Bass
C- Dirk

For some reason, Carlisle hasn't thrown out Bass and Dirk on the floor very much. I think it would be a great combo.

Bass's athleticism and mid-range jumper can allow him to move away from the rack, while the combination of Dirk and Jo-Ho penetrating/shooting jumpers can help the Mavs get points, which they will need, especially if there D continues to have an on/off switch.

Bass and Howard are the Mavs' toughest guys on the boards. Plus, Kidd has been able to get his share of boards, something which is great from a point guard who is used to moving around the court.

With Dirk, Bass and Jo-Ho in your frontcourt ,you've got three tough rebounders, one over seven feet as well as three lights-out jump shooters.

You also have two and a half guys who can shoot the three-ball (the half is the shaky combo of Howard and Kidd.)

What this lineup gives you is a chance to be quick, lights out, with a little more toughness on the boards than your traditional small-ball team.

Why is small ball important?

Did you see the 2007 Mavs-Warriors series? Avery decided to go small against them when he hadn't gone small all year. The result? Me, ready eat a bullet.

What happens if they start rolling out this lineups against some younger teams? What happens if you can find Gerald Green a spot in a small-ball lineup, maybe instead of Terry?

All of a sudden, you've got an incredibly athletic core of Green, Howard and Bass, surrounded by two hall-of-famers in Dirk and J-Kidd.

Sounds pretty good huh?

The downside? Defense. While Jo-Ho is still not up to being a Kobe-stopper, he is quick, and combine him with Kidd, they could probably do a decent job of stopping a dynamic SG such as Kobe, T-Mac or Brandon Roy.

Besides, smallball isn't necessarily your crunch time lineup, just a way to mix things up when you feel like running.