It was pretty clear that the Lakers didn't want to play the Jazz. I think they're ready to beat anyone, and they should be, but the Jazz play a physical game that could place some strain on the Lakers, particularly Kobe who's coming off of a run to the Finals last year, the Olympics, and then a full 82 game season this year.
While Kobe's not an old man, he's no spring chicken, and he's still got that finger injury that he never got fixed.
The Jazz are coming off of a strange year. Once thought to be sleepers for the '09 title, the injuries/shenanigans of Carlos Boozer, and a woeful road record have left them as an afterthought to the NBA playoffs, which is strange, given that they've added a talent in Paul Millsap, and haven't really lost anyone of importance.
As bad as the Jazz are on the road, they're that good on the road. The absence of homecourt means they have to steal a game in the Staples Center, and it's hard to imagine them doing that against one of the best teams in the NBA.
PG: Derek Fisher vs. Deron Williams
Really no contest, and one of the few matchups that the Jazz have in their favor. The young, physically imposing Williams should have his way with the older, slower Fisher.
Fisher is no slouch on the defensive end, but he's going to have his work cut out for him trying to stop Williams from doing a lot of damage.
Winner: Deron Williams
SG: Kobe Bryant vs. Ronnie Brewer
I like Ronnie Brewer. He's got decent speed, is pretty good on defense, and is a solid shooting guard. Pity for him he's going against the best shooting guard of the last decade, one who's deadly on both ends of the floor.
With Kobe likely focusing on defending Williams, Brewer should have a chance to make his mark on the series. But can you upset a No. 1 seed with Ronnie Brewer handling the scoring? I don't think so.
Winner: Kobe Bryant
SF: Trevor Ariza vs. C.J. Miles
Trevor Ariza is one of the most underrated defenders in the league today. Though his numbers from three-point land aren't spectacular, it seems like every time I see the Lakers, he makes a timely three. With him and Kobe guarding the best wingmen, they're a formidable duo, and it's going to take more than C.J. Miles to put pressure on them.
Winner: Trevor Ariza
PF: Pau Gasol vs. Carlos Boozer
One of the most intriguing matchups of the first round. A physical low post scorer against a finesse shooter and skilled passer.Gasol's defense against the much more physical Celtics in last year's finals was one of the reasons the Lakers seemed unable to generate much firepower, and stop the Celtics, and it could be a factor here.
I don't see Pau Gasol giving Boozer much trouble when he tries to post up, but Gasol's reach could help him. With Boozer on defense, he's more than capable of handling Gasol, but he will be helpless when Gasol is able to make quick passes to a streaking Ariza or Bynum.
As far as who is going to have more impact on the series, I think it is going to be Boozer. He's got a new contract to think about, and he's got Paul Millsap just waiting to show him up to grab the Power Forward spot.
If Gasol comes out swinging, this could be a four or five-game series, but I think he'll be outmuscled.
Winner: Carlos Boozer
C: Andrew Bynum vs. Mehmet Okur
This provides an interesting contrast as well. As different as Gasol and Boozer are, Okur and Bynum are even more so. Bynum is just a low-post presence, while Okur lacks in that area, but he's a great perimeter guy.
Look to see the two guys switching up on defense. If I were Phil Jackson, I would put Gasol on Okur, start Odom on Boozer, and let those two play their games.
Bynum on the bench could provide a good boost, especially if he comes in when Boozer and/or Okur are on the bench.
I think Bynum will have a chance to make his mark on the series, but I'm not sure he's ready to do it. If he's getting muscled by someone like Boozer and/or Millsap, then he could be hesitant given his injury problems.
While I've always been an Okur fan, I think the nod has to go to the true center.
Winner: Andrew Bynum
Bench:
The Lakers used to have one of the deepest benches in the league, and Odom coming off of it certainly helps the second unit. After Odom, it gets pretty thin, with a streaky Farmar, even streakier Vujacic, and the seldom seen Luke Walton.
Utah boasts a guy who will probably be starting for them next year in Millsap, a sniper in Kyle Korver and one of the most complete players off the bench in Andrei Kirilenko.
Utah's depth will be a major reason they can stretch the Lakers to six or seven games, but they need to take advantage of their matchup advantages, particularly when Kobe is out. If AK-47, can slow down Kobe, the Jazz should be able to make the series interesting. Otherwise, it will be a joke.
Pick: Lakers in 6
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