The Dallas Mavericks have closed the season with a flourish, or so I'm told, I don't follow them all that closely. The Spurs have limped to the finish, which stands in stark contrast to how they usually finish the season, playing their best basketball. Both of these teams have will have a chance to extend their window by at least a week, a the expense of slamming the other's shut.
For the last few years, the hierarchy in the West has always been Spurs, Mavs, Suns. The Suns are stuck in third place as far as that goes, and now the Mavs have a chance to climb to the top, possibly for the last time.
Ginobili has always been a Mavs killer, and with his absence and Duncan's knees, the Spurs are as ripe for the plucking as they have always been.
PG: Tony Parker vs. Jason Kidd
Old-school vs. new school. For two people who play the same position, the two couldn't have more opposite games. With Manu out, Parker must be the first or second option on offense, while Kidd is often fourth or fifth.
We all know that Parker will probably have a field day on Kidd on the offensive end. His speed can't be matched by Kidd, and any help the Mavs will give Kidd will only open the window for another shooter to bomb the Mavs from long range.
Kidd needs to do exactly what he has been doing. Push the ball in transition, set up Dirk, Terry and Howard, and make the open three when given the space. If the Mavs can find a way to slow down Parker, the Spurs simply don't have enough firepower.
Winner: Tony Parker
SG: Roger Mason Jr. vs. Antoine Wright
While Roger Mason's late game heroics have made SportsCenter all year long, what he does in the other 47 minutes can't be overlooked as well. Simply put, he's a smart player. I had the privilege of watching him go overlooked on the Wizards last year, and his play this year hasn't been surprising.
Mason's strength lies in the fact that he doesn't try to overstep his bounds. He doesn't take shots he has no business taking, which is more than can be said of a lot of NBA player. Unfortunately, most of those other players aren't on the Spurs.
Antoine Wright is at his best when he is acting as foil to Josh Howard. When Howard is hot in the first, Wright needs to be lockdown defensively. As Howard cools off, Wright needs to be driving to the cup, drawing fouls.
Wright shouldn't have many defensive problems with Mason himself, but he needs to be careful about shifting to Parker and leaving Mason open. The Spurs have won four rings on the drive-and-kick offense, and this is no time to let them take advantage.
I think Wright is much more capable of leaving his mark on the series than Mason.
Winner: Antoine Wright
SF: Michael Finley vs. Josh Howard
Ah, how fitting. The Mavs' small forward of the past against the small forward of the present (and hopefully, future). Josh Howard has been playing on a leg and a wrist that will go under the knife after the season (hopefully not until late June).
It's been said ad nauseum, but Josh Howard is the X-Factor. His return and subsequent stellar play have everything to do with the Mavericks hot finish.
Michael Finley's role is far more reduced, but no less important. He needs to hit jumpers. Plain and simple. When the defense collapses on Duncan or Parker, he's one of the few that will be taking that shot.
But no one on this postseason, save maybe Kobe, has more riding on this postseason than Howard. Short of an admission that he is a cokehead, Howard has hit the bottom, and has nowhere to go but up. Not that it's going to be easy, but it's possible.
Winner: Josh Howard
PF: Tim Duncan vs. Dirk Nowitzki
As far as star power goes, this is it for first-round matchups. Besides LeBron and Pierce, there isn't another matchup that features two sure hall-of-famers going at it.
At this point in their careers, Duncan is slowing down fast, and Dirk is still plugging along. Of course, Timmy can still relax on a mattress of championship rings (at least, that's how it feels) when he's done. Dirk still has work to do.
Dirk's offensive game is still unparalleled, his one-legged Euro fadeaway is near unguardable (though Carl Landry managed to block one last night), and he can still get to the rim. Duncan, on the other hand, will break you down with his arsenal of low-post moves, and he can hit the elbow jumper and rebound better than anyone.
During this series, Tony Parker can take up most of Duncan's slack on offense, but Dirk's 20-plus points are going to be hard to replace, even with their depth. Dirk needs to have a strong series, otherwise next year's Mavericks are going to look very different, maybe not in a good way.
Winner: Dirk Nowitzki
C: Matt Bonner vs. Erick Dampier
There's not many centers in the league that I would pick Dampier over, but Matt Bonner is one of them. While he is a good outside shooter, he doesn't have the low-post presence to compete with Dampier, and that speaks more to his shortcomings (read: he's a whitey with red hair) than to Dampier's strengths.
This hasn't killed the Spurs because of Duncan's low-post dominance, and his ability to play a passable center.
Dampier needs to show up for every other game as opposed to every four or five, and Dallas should be okay at the center. Dampier does tend to get in foul trouble, and if Parker is particularly aggressive it may come down to that, but that's where Dallas' bench comes in.
Winner: Erick Dampier
Bench:
Dallas has emerged as having a very deep bench. Jason Terry aside, J.J. Barea, Brandon Bass, James Singleton, Ryan Hollins and Gerald Green are capable of making their own marks on the game.
What to say about Jason Terry that hasn't been said already? Your Sixth Man of the Year, instant offense, instant energy and a cold-bloodedshooter to boot. With Terry in at crunch time, the Mavs are looking pretty good in close games.
Let's go back to Brandon Bass. His ferocity and athleticism should play a huge part for the Mavs during this series. Big, athletic guys have always given the Spurs trouble, and that's Bass to a T.
If he can lock down Duncan for a few minutes, throw some crowd-pleasing dunks, and make the occasional elbow or baseline jumper, he could be a huge part of the Mavs living to fight again in the second round.
The Spurs have George Hill (who might be ready in a few years), Ime Udoka (who isn't ready after a few years), and Fabricio Oberto (who lost his starting gig to a big, red-deaded 7-footer who can't rebound). 'Nuff said.
Winner: Dallas
Pick: Mavericks in 6
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