(4) Portland Trailblazers vs. (5) Houston Rockets
Interestingly enough, this matchup was decided before the Blazers/Nuggets game, all that remained was to see who would get homecourt.
The person who has the most to lose in this series won't even be on the court. Tracy McGrady. If the Rockets beat the young, upstart, Blazers, the team that people are saying are the only challengers to the Lakers in the West, then people McGrady loses a lot of value.
Teams that could have been thinking about taking his contract in a trade will think twice, given his injury history and the economy, and the Rockets will view him as the guy who was holding them back.
Rockets fans can envision a world where Yao and Artest can take them beyond the first round, and if they can dump McGrady for another, better free agent in 2010.
The Blazers can shed the ghosts of the past, and accelerate their plans as the team of the future, and with Kobe age, the decline of the Suns, Spurs and Mavs, and Hornets' owner George Shinn's notorious penny-pinching, they could be poised to take over the west.
PG: Steve Blake vs. Aaron Brooks
Who knew at the beginning of the year that it would turn out like this? Steve Blake has experiences a mini-resurgence and has a young heir in Jerryd Bayless to take the reins, and he has played perfectly within himself to help his team be the best they can be.
Besides hitting the occasional three and making some end-of-game free throws, not much of the shooting burden will fall on Blake.
Aaron Brooks started the year second on the depth chart, and filled in so well during Rafer Alston's injury, that the Rockets were willing to trade Alston to give Brooks the reins. He's capable of a breakout game or two on the offensive end, and he runs the offense nicely.
Winner: Aaron Brooks
SG: Brandon Roy vs. Ron Artest
A great matchup. Roy has emerged into a genuine assassin, and probably has the most complete game of any player not named Kobe in the game today. He can kill you on both ends of the floor, and from every spot on the floor. He's capable of miracle shots, momentum killers and boosters, and has a very bright future in the NBA.
But can Ron Artest stop Roy? Between Battier and Artest, Roy has to deal with the two most talented perimeter defenders in the game. As the primary offensive threat, Roy will have to be careful and pick his moments, but he's smart enough to do that.
If Artest can do damage on the offensive end, the Rockets could really be onto something. With McGrady out, Artest needs to provide those points, and he needs to be smart about his shots, something he sometimes gets away from.
If he gets rattled and start jacking up bad threes, especially if Roy starts abusing him it will be very easy for Houston to come unglued and suffer yet another first round defeat.
Winner: Brandon Roy
SF: Nicholas Batum vs. Shane Battier
This is the chance for Nicholas Batum to make a name for himself, other than being the French guy who isn't Tony Parker or Boris Diaw. If he can score with regularity, that spreads Artest and Battier apart, and will open things up for Portland's primary weapon, Roy.
Battier has both the easiest and most difficult job of the game. He has to play good D, and make the open three when called to do so. But he has to play good D against someone like Roy or LaMarcus Aldridge, and he has to do it well.
Winner: Shane Battier
PF: LaMarcus Aldrige vs. Luis Scola
The two frontcourt matchups in this series are the most intriguing pair. Aldridge has the potential to be one of the top power forwards in the game, combining a pretty decent low-post arsenal with a sweet jump shot, and a pretty good skill set. His shot is streak at times, and he tends to slack on defense, but he is rapidly improving.
With Scola, you have a "sophomore" who is one of the most physical players playing in the game. A good shooter, a great rebounder, he will give Aldridge all the bumping he can handle, and then some. It will be interesting to see those two go at it, and to see who comes out on top, as this matchup may very well decide a series that goes seven games.
Winner:LaMarcus Aldridge
C: Joel Pryzbilla vs. Yao Ming
With his low-post skill set, the Trailblazers are going to need every single foul they can get. The problem with Greg Oden is that he might give too many of those away.
Yao can make anyone pay from anywhere inside of 18-feet, and he has managed to stay healthy this season. The pessimist in me says that this means he's facing an injury in this series, which will spell doom for the Rockets. The optimist in me says that playing more than 50 games (77 to be exact) for the first time since 2004-05 will give him the confidence he needs to break through to the next step.
If Yao can get the Portland big men in foul trouble, this will place an extraordinary strain on their reserves, and he could have a huge series.
Winner: Yao Ming
Bench:
Two good benches. Portland's features two people that could be starters on a number of other teams in Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw, as well as Greg Oden. Greg Oden has a real chance to make a splash if he can stay out of foul trouble and make life difficult for the Yao.
Houston's features a promising point guard in Kyle Lowry, who has started to usurp minutes from Aaron Brooks, and two possible difference makers in Von Wafer and Carl Landry.
Portland's bench should have the edge here, but if they cede that to Houston, then they won't go very far.
Winner: Portland
Pick: Portland in 6
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